US Mulls Two-Year, IRA-Style Plan To Decommission Hamas Weapons — Israeli Officials Warn Of Risks

US officials are reportedly considering a proposal to remove Hamas’s weapons gradually over roughly two years, using a process modelled on the IRA weapons decommissioning that followed the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

Overview

Israeli sources say there is private alarm after American negotiators appeared to accept proposals from Turkey and Qatar to phase out Hamas’s arsenal slowly. Both countries — which Israel has accused of supporting the group — have stepped up pressure to secure a clear route to the second phase of the deal being promoted by Donald Trump, ahead of an anticipated announcement in Washington this month.

What Is Being Proposed

According to reporting in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli officials believe the Turkey-Qatar blueprint, and what Washington has signalled it might accept, could function as a smokescreen that would leave Hamas effectively armed. The concern intensified after Bassem Naim, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, said the group might be open to discussing "freezing or storing" its weapons.

Timeline And Mechanism

Negotiators are said to favour a roughly two-year schedule to deprive Hamas of its weapons, contrasting with Israel’s preferred timeline of a few months. The term being used is "decommissioning" rather than immediate, total confiscation; under the IRA model weapons were handed over and stored under British supervision over several years. Any Gaza model under discussion would aim to prevent Hamas from accessing its arms, but Israeli officials warn that arrangements that in practice leave the group with access to weapons would be unacceptable.

Diplomatic Context And Leadership Roles

The issue is expected to come to a head when Benjamin Netanyahu visits Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 29. British figures with experience in the Northern Ireland peace process have been involved in shaping elements of the proposal: Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told Parliament the UK could offer that experience, and his national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, who was central to the Northern Ireland negotiations, is reported to have influenced parts of the plan.

Allies of Sir Tony Blair told the Financial Times that he is not being considered for a board role despite having been the only person Mr Trump mentioned when unveiling the "Board of Peace" concept. Reports suggest the Board may be composed of current heads of government to secure broad international backing, with a smaller executive committee handling practical administration of post-war Gaza.

Operational Disputes And Security Concerns

A separate dispute has emerged at the multinational Civil-Military Coordination Centre in Kiryat Gat, established in October to support the ceasefire. The Guardian reported that the US commander of the centre, Lt. Gen. Patrick Frank, ordered Israeli staff to stop recording meetings — including some alleged covert recordings. The Israel Defense Forces dismissed claims they were spying on partners as "absurd," saying it documents meetings through agreed protocols.

Hostage, Reconstruction, And Governance Issues

One final deceased Israeli hostage remains in Gaza, and Israel may insist that "phase two" does not begin until his remains are returned. Police Sergeant Ran Gvili was killed on Oct. 7 after fighting Hamas gunmen; David Zini, director of Israel’s Shin Bet, reportedly travelled to Cairo to review intelligence that might indicate the location of Gvili’s remains.

There are also reports that Israel has privately floated a role for the Palestinian Authority in administering post-war Gaza, on the condition that Gazans and Palestinians would lose refugee status and that UN agencies currently supporting them would not play a role — a proposal that would be highly controversial and faces significant logistical and political obstacles.

Note: Most details remain based on media reporting and statements from officials. Key elements — timelines, oversight mechanisms, and the composition of post-war governance bodies — are not yet final.