Trump’s ‘Blame Biden’ Strategy Shows Cracks as Polls and Data Signal Waning Impact

The Memo: Trump Faces Waning Returns From ‘Blame Biden’ Playbook

President Donald Trump continues to attribute a range of problems — from elevated prices to a recent shooting involving two National Guard members in Washington, D.C. — to his predecessor, Joe Biden. But after nearly a year back in the White House, data and polling suggest that this line of attack is losing effectiveness, particularly with independent and swing voters.

Inflation And Economic Messaging

At a White House event on Tuesday, Mr. Trump dismissed the idea of "affordability" as "a Democrat scam" and highlighted his administration’s efforts to lower costs. Yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent inflation reading — an annualized 3 percent for September — is unchanged from January, the month President Biden left office.

“Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again,” Mr. Trump said on the 2024 campaign trail.

That promise leaves him politically exposed because, while inflation has eased from the 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, it has flattened near 3 percent — above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

National Guard Shooting And Questions Of Responsibility

Mr. Trump has also sought to connect the fatal shooting of National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom and the wounding of Andrew Wolfe to the Biden era because the suspect, Afghanistan-born Rahmanullah Lakanwal, arrived in the United States during Mr. Biden’s term. However, Lakanwal was granted asylum in April, three months into the Trump presidency, complicating any straightforward assignment of blame. Many facts about the incident remain unclear and under investigation.

Polling Shows Eroding Political Benefit

Democrats and some independent analysts say the repetitive attacks are diminishing in impact. "I believe there are diminishing returns to the attacks against Biden," said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle Jr., noting independent voters appear to be drifting away from Mr. Trump.

Recent polling underscores the challenge. The polling average maintained by Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, shows Mr. Trump 11 points underwater on job approval: 53 percent disapprove and 42 percent approve. A Yahoo/YouGov poll found only 31 percent approve of his handling of the cost of living while 63 percent disapprove. That survey also reported 38 percent blame Mr. Trump for inflation versus 31 percent who blame Mr. Biden.

A Fox News poll painted a starker picture: 62 percent of voters said Mr. Trump was more responsible than Mr. Biden for the state of the economy, compared with 32 percent who pointed to Mr. Biden. On whether voters had been helped by Mr. Trump’s economic policies, the Fox poll found 15 percent said yes, 46 percent said no, and 39 percent said there had been no difference.

Political Implications

Republicans argue that reminding voters of the prior administration’s record provides necessary context. GOP strategist Brad Blakeman said the president is explaining "where we’ve been, where we’re headed and why he’s doing what he’s doing." Still, even some Republicans urge candidates to offer a more positive, forward-looking message ahead of the midterms.

For Mr. Trump, the political problem is concrete: his economic stewardship is a top issue for voters, and sticking inflation combined with mixed results from tariff-driven policies leaves him vulnerable—especially when improving affordability was a central campaign promise.

Takeaway

Mr. Trump’s recurring tactic of blaming Mr. Biden for current problems appears to be losing traction, particularly among independents and swing voters whose support will be pivotal in upcoming elections. While the tactic still resonates with segments of his base, the broader electorate is increasingly judging the current administration on its own record.