One Year In: Inflation has eased to 2.7% (November) while unemployment rose to 4.6%. The national debt reached $38.4 trillion, and global favorability toward the U.S. has fallen in many countries. Other notable indicators: a 30‑year mortgage rate near 6.25%, a steep drop in southwest border apprehensions, and 74% of Americans reporting dissatisfaction with the country’s direction.
One Year In: How Inflation, Jobs and Key Numbers Shape Trump’s Second Term
Judging a president is rarely simple: people often hold leaders they dislike to higher standards while excusing mistakes by those they support. To provide an objective yardstick at the start of Donald Trump’s second term, this review tracks a handful of measurable benchmarks after roughly one year in office.
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we’re as strong as we were four years ago?
Economic Snapshot
Inflation: The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, targets 2%. The most recent available data (November) show annual inflation at 2.7% — below the post‑pandemic peak of 9.1% (June 2022) but still above the Fed’s goal. Grocery examples illustrate mixed progress: a dozen Grade A eggs averaged $2.86 in November (down from $4.15 the prior December) and a gallon of whole milk averaged $3.97, but prices for bananas, coffee and beef steaks have risen.
Unemployment: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate at 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% the previous December. The Federal Reserve does not set a fixed employment target, though it has recently described “maximum employment” as roughly 5%–6%. Economists say last year’s federal shutdown and broad tariff policies increased economic volatility, while heavy capital investment in artificial intelligence helped offset some negative effects.
Global Standing and Security
International Favorability: Pew Research Center’s 2025 Global Attitudes Survey found notable declines in favorable views of the U.S. across 15 countries — largest drops reported in Mexico (‑32 points), Sweden (‑28), Poland (‑22), Canada (‑20), the Netherlands (‑19) and Spain (‑17). Only Israel, Nigeria and Turkey recorded improvements. The survey also found negative views of President Trump in 19 of 24 countries surveyed and majorities in several U.S. allies expressing no confidence at all in his leadership.
Conflicts and Security: There is no single metric for national security. Since October, a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas — brokered by the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Turkey — has held, but progress on a longer-term settlement remains stalled. Russia and Ukraine are still at war, with overall casualties estimated at nearly 1.4 million by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Closer to the Americas, the administration has threatened Venezuela, seized tankers alleged to move sanctioned oil, and conducted controversial maritime strikes against suspected drug-trafficking vessels; reporting indicates at least 105 fatalities associated with those actions.
Other Key Indicators
National Debt: Public debt stands at about $38.4 trillion, up from $36.2 trillion at the start of the term. The signature legislative package of the second term — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — is projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center to add up to $4 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump takes part in a signing ceremony in the President's Room following the 60th inaugural ceremony on Jan. 20, 2025 at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C.(Melina Mara / The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Housing: The average interest rate for a 30‑year fixed mortgage is around 6.25% (Freddie Mac), down from about 7% when the term began but well above the near‑3% historic lows of 2021.
Southern Border: U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 7,350 apprehensions between ports of entry along the southwest border in November, a sharp decline from 47,330 in December 2024. The Department of Homeland Security says border crossings are at their lowest level since 1970. Observers disagree on the policy and humanitarian implications of that shift.
Democracy and Civic Health: A joint SNF Agora Institute/Public Agenda survey found that 84% of Americans believe democracy is in crisis or facing serious challenges. Freedom House rated the U.S. 84/100 on its 2025 freedom index, modestly up from 83 in 2024.
Public Sentiment
Perhaps the most direct gauge of national health is how Americans feel. A December Gallup poll found that 74% of respondents were dissatisfied with “the way things are going in the United States at this time,” a slight improvement from 79% the prior December but still a substantial majority expressing discontent.
Bottom Line: After one year, economic signals are mixed — inflation has eased though it remains above target, and unemployment ticked up — while broader measures (national debt, international reputation and public dissatisfaction) paint a more concerning picture heading into the remainder of the term.
Originally published on MS NOW. Data cited include the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research Center, Gallup, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the Bipartisan Policy Center, Freddie Mac, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and reporting from The New York Times.
