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Study Models How Drone Swarms Could Disrupt Starlink Coverage Over Taiwan

Study Models How Drone Swarms Could Disrupt Starlink Coverage Over Taiwan

A Beijing Institute of Technology simulation models how a coordinated swarm of jamming drones could disrupt a Starlink-like satellite constellation over Taiwan. Researchers found that because terminals rapidly switch links among many moving satellites, single-point jamming is ineffective; a distributed aerial approach would be required. Their simulations estimate a lower bound of about 935 drones, with a plausible range of 1,000–2,000 devices. The authors caution results are preliminary because Starlink’s specific anti-jamming measures are not publicly known.

A new simulation from researchers at the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) models how a large swarm of synchronized jamming drones could be used to disrupt SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communications over an area the size of Taiwan. The study draws on lessons from Russia’s attempts to interfere with satellite links during its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and examines how a resilient, fast-hopping satellite constellation might be countered at scale.

The authors emphasize that Starlink-like constellations are highly dynamic: satellites shift orbital planes and user terminals rapidly hand off connections between multiple satellites, creating a constantly changing mesh of links. That spatiotemporal complexity makes sustained single-point jamming difficult, the paper says.

Key findings

The research tested a distributed jamming strategy composed of many aerial jammers rather than fixed ground stations. In the simulations each jammer drone broadcasts interference (noise) at varying power levels while operating in a coordinated swarm.

"The orbital planes of Starlink are not fixed, and the movement trajectories of the constellation are highly complex, with the number of satellites entering the visible area constantly changing," the researchers write.

According to the model, fully suppressing service across Taiwan would require on the order of 935 synchronized jamming drones as a lower bound, with a plausible operational range of roughly 1,000–2,000 devices. The team notes that these results are preliminary because precise anti-jamming measures used by Starlink are not publicly known.

Caveats and implications

The study is a simulation and does not account for all real-world constraints, such as detection risk, logistics, airspace defenses, electronic-countermeasure developments, and legal or diplomatic repercussions. The researchers present a technical feasibility study rather than evidence of an imminent operational capability.

Nevertheless, the paper highlights a strategic vulnerability for satellite-based communications in contested environments and underscores why companies and militaries invest in anti-jamming technologies, redundancy, and rapid mitigation measures. It also illustrates how lessons from recent conflicts are informing defensive and offensive research in multiple countries.

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