Allies Scramble to Replace U.S. Intelligence if Washington Withdraws Support

Allies of Ukraine are actively exploring how to fill potential intelligence shortfalls if the United States withdraws or limits its support after Kyiv balks at a proposed peace plan. NATO officials, European leaders and national defence figures say U.S. capabilities are hard to replicate, but emerging commercial providers and national assets could help cover some immediate needs.

Commercial satellites and novel providers

James Appathurai, interim head of NATO's DIANA defense innovation programme, said the U.S. role in intelligence-sharing is "unique" and difficult to replace. He added, however, that commercial options that were unavailable or overlooked just a few years ago could provide useful alternatives—particularly for satellite imagery and near-real-time observation.

Appathurai highlighted the Finnish space company ICEYE as an example. Originally established to monitor sea ice from orbit, ICEYE has pivoted into mobile intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and has sold satellites to several European militaries while already supplying some data to Ukraine.

Joost Elstak, ICEYE's vice president for missions, said the company currently operates between five and 10 sovereign satellites and expects to launch another 10 to 15 within the next two years. Still, he cautioned, scaling up commercial capability takes time and money—while Ukrainian forces need help now.

European capabilities and remaining gaps

European Commission member for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius noted that the EU fields powerful systems such as the Galileo navigation constellation and the Copernicus earth-observation programme. But he acknowledged gaps remain in satellite communications: the EU's planned IRIS² connectivity project is not due to be fully operational until 2030.

Those shortfalls were underscored by concerns raised earlier this year about interruptions to space-based intelligence and satellite internet services, which increased interest in alternative providers and national assets across Europe.

National contributions and limits

Some NATO partners say they could contribute national capabilities. Canada's Conservative MP James Bezan, the opposition's shadow defence minister, recalled that Ottawa has supplied RADARSAT-2 imagery in the past to monitor activity at and beyond Ukraine's border and said Canada could resume such support if necessary.

But senior Canadian military leaders warned there are limits. Gen. Jennie Carignan, Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff, said the absence of U.S. military assistance would create gaps in areas like long-range precision strike. She suggested that drones and other technologies might offset some needs but conceded that certain strategic capabilities would be hard to fully replace.

Outlook

No senior U.S. military officials attended the Halifax International Security Forum, leaving allies to speculate whether Washington's remarks are a negotiating tactic or signal a more permanent shift. European and NATO officials say they will explore every viable avenue—commercial, national and pooled EU resources—to limit disruption to Ukraine's battlefield awareness and operations.

"U.S. capability is unique. That's absolutely clear and irreplaceable, even in a NATO context," Appathurai said. "But there are commercial options available to any country that were not available or not thought of even a few years ago."