Rob Jetten Edges Out Geert Wilders by 28,455 Votes as Final Expat Ballots Are Counted

Rob Jetten secures razor-thin victory after postal votes from abroad are tallied

Dutch centrist leader Rob Jetten on Monday secured an extremely narrow victory over far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders after the remaining postal ballots were counted, leaving Jetten with a final lead of 28,455 votes.

The last ballots came from roughly 87,000 Dutch citizens living abroad; their postal votes were processed in The Hague. Expatriate voters favoured Jetten, who received 16,049 overseas votes compared with Wilders' 7,451, contributing to the decisive margin.

Jetten had publicly declared victory on Friday after Dutch news agency ANP said Wilders no longer had a mathematical path to overtake him. Wilders criticised that early declaration as arrogant and has made unsubstantiated claims of voting irregularities. The Dutch Electoral Council is scheduled to formally confirm the result on Friday and will publish any findings about problems on election day.

What this means for government formation

The outcome puts the 38-year-old Jetten on course to become the Netherlands' youngest prime minister and the country's first openly gay head of government, but he now faces the difficult task of building a coalition.

Because no single party wins an absolute majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives, coalition talks are required. Jetten's D66 and Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) are both projected to have 26 seats. Jetten's preferred path is a four-party coalition with the centre-right CDA (projected 18 seats), the left-leaning Green/Labour bloc (projected 20 seats), and the right-leaning VVD (projected 22 seats). Together those parties would hold 86 seats, a workable majority, but significant ideological differences — particularly between VVD and the Green/Labour bloc — make coalition negotiations challenging.

The next formal step is expected on Tuesday when Jetten will appoint a so-called scout to assess which parties are willing to enter talks. Until a new coalition is formed, a caretaker government led by Dick Schoof remains in office; Schoof has said he is prepared for the possibility of still serving as prime minister at Christmas.

Note: The Electoral Council's official confirmation on Friday will be the final step in validating the count and addressing outstanding questions about the conduct of the vote.