New Poll Shows Dead Heat in Texas Governor’s Race as Trump’s RNC Events Begin

A new Univision/YouGov poll finds Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic nominee State Rep. Gina Hinojosa locked in a dead heat as President Donald Trump and leading Republicans gather in Dallas for a high-profile midterm push.

Tied Polls and Tight Race

The N+ Univision/YouGov survey of 1,000 Texas voters, conducted Aug. 27–Sept. 4, 2026, shows Abbott and Hinojosa tied at 47% each (margin of error ±3.6 points). Among the 564 Latino registered voters in the sample, the margin of error is ±5 points. About 5% of respondents are undecided and 1% plan to back another candidate.

Texas state Rep. and Democratic nominee for governor Gina Hinojosa, center, listens as Epstein survivor Dani Bensky, left, speaks during a roundtable discussion with Epstein survivor Liz Stein, right, at the Donald J. Trump and Jeffrey Epstein Memorial Reading Room in Dallas, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Gabriela Passos)

Hinojosa leads among Latino voters 54%–42% overall, with Latina women favoring her 57%–39% and Latino men narrowly backing her 49%–47%. In the same poll, Hinojosa enjoys higher favorability—49% favorable to Abbott’s 41%—while Abbott carries a much higher unfavorable rating (50% vs. Hinojosa’s 23%) and far greater name recognition (only ~1% say they've never heard of Abbott vs. ~8% for Hinojosa).

Other Polls, Forecasts and Markets

Other statewide surveys show small Abbott leads but generally describe a closer contest than 2022. An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll (Aug. 24–26, 1,167 likely voters) put Abbott ahead by 1 point, 46.9% to 45.8% (leaners included: 51.2% to 48.8%). Texas Public Opinion Research (1,000 likely voters, Aug. 21–24) showed Abbott up 49% to 42% (±3.3 points). A late-July Texas Southern University poll (1,200 likely voters) had Abbott 49% to Hinojosa's 43%.

FILE – Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, March 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Gabriela Passos, File)

Despite the close polling, forecasters such as The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently classify the race as “Likely Republican.” Prediction markets and betting platforms have also favored the incumbent: as of midweek, Kalshi and Polymarket priced Abbott’s reelection odds at roughly 82%.

Context: Candidates, Demographics and Issues

Abbott, a conservative and prominent Trump ally first elected governor in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022, would become Texas’ longest-serving governor with a fourth term, passing Rick Perry. Hinojosa, a lawyer sworn into the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March and has emphasized education funding and cost-of-living concerns.

Democratic candidate for Texas governor Gina Hinojosa, right, listens to Josh Chavez, left, during a roundtable discussion on data centers Saturday, July 18, 2026, in Lubbock, Texas. (AP Photo/Justin Rex)

Polls highlight stark demographic divides: Abbott leads among white voters by wide margins while Hinojosa leads among Latino and Black voters and performs especially well with women, independents and moderates in several surveys.

On issue trust, Democrats led on most topics tested—particularly cost of living, inflation, gas prices, immigrants’ rights and keeping the U.S. out of foreign wars—while Republicans held an edge only on border security in the Univision/YouGov survey (42% trusted Republicans more on the border vs. 38% for Democrats).

Ally Raskin speaks at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

National Headwinds and the RNC Events

National dynamics could shape turnout and outcomes. Rolling and aggregate polls show President Trump with weak approval: Civiqs reported a 35% approval / 59% disapproval split (net -24) as of Sept. 8; Silver’s averaging put his net approval near -19.5 (about 38.4% approve, 58% disapprove). Economic concerns—most immediately higher oil prices after disruptions tied to the Iran war (Brent crude topped $100 a barrel) and trade/tariff debates—are likely to figure prominently in voters’ minds.

The GOP’s Dallas events, billed by some participants as “Trump-a-Palooza,” aim to energize the party’s base and produce a post-convention messaging bump. Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters told Newsweek the convention is intended to bring Trump’s message directly to voters and boost turnout ahead of Election Day.

What To Watch

With nearly two months until Election Day, both parties are expected to invest heavily in Texas. Watch for: subsequent polls tracking turnout models, shifts in Latino and suburban voting patterns, fundraising and ad spending, and whether national headwinds—Trump’s approval, the economy and energy prices—alter the trajectory of this competitive gubernatorial contest.

Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comment. Reporting includes results from multiple public polls and forecasting markets referenced by date and sample size.