Ethiopian federal forces entered and secured Mekelle after TPLF fighters withdrew, restoring communications to the city after a week-long blackout. Regional leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan met in Alamein to discuss the risk of the conflict spreading. Residents reported closed shops and civilian-organised security amid fears the fighting could spill across borders. Analysts warn the flare-up could reignite wider hostilities despite the 2022 Pretoria agreement.
Ethiopian Forces Secure Mekelle as Regional Leaders Meet in Egypt Over Escalation Fears
Federal troops were patrolling Mekelle and manning key institutions (-)
Ethiopian federal forces have entered and secured Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, after fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reportedly withdrew, a local journalist told AFP on Sunday. Communications were restored in the city for the first time in more than a week, while federal patrols guarded key institutions as residents confronted an uncertain security environment.
On the Ground
The renewed fighting between the TPLF and federal forces began on September 23, raising fears of a return to the large-scale conflict that devastated parts of Ethiopia from 2020 to 2022. A government counter-offensive pushed deep into formerly rebel-held areas; troops entered Mekelle on Saturday without reported resistance after TPLF leaders and fighters abandoned the city.
"We have taken control of Mekelle and we are marching forward," a commander with a pro-government militia told AFP.
Many shops and businesses remained closed as owners moved goods to safer locations ahead of the advance. Several residents said local neighbourhoods organised ad-hoc security in the absence of normal policing. While some welcomed an apparent reduction in active combat within the city, others warned the conflict could drag on and spread across borders.
Regional Diplomacy and Risks
As federal forces advanced, regional leaders gathered in the Egyptian resort city of Alamein for a mini-summit on the sidelines of an African Business Forum. The meeting brought together Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudanese Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to discuss the risk of wider instability.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF; Addis Ababa has also alleged backing from Sudan and Egypt, claims those countries deny. Eritrea, which shares a long border with Tigray, has been singled out by analysts as particularly involved given historical tensions and proximity. President Sisi urged "dialogue, not confrontation," calling on African states to prioritise cooperation, respect for sovereignty and negotiation over unilateral action.
Background and Outlook
The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 until 2018, when it lost national influence amid political change under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The 2020-2022 war killed an estimated 600,000 people, according to the African Union, and a Pretoria-brokered 2022 peace agreement never saw full implementation. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael has indicated the group may revert to guerrilla tactics, saying the fighters will "strike the enemy wherever we choose," a strategy that helped the TPLF retake Mekelle in 2021.
Analysts warn of several potential flashpoints: cross-border spillovers (notably into Eritrea), renewed insurgency campaigns, and the fragility of ceasefire and peace commitments. For now, residents of Mekelle face immediate concerns about security, livelihoods and the prospect of a prolonged conflict that could further destabilise the Horn of Africa.
Sources: AFP reporting, local journalist accounts, statements from regional leaders, African Union casualty estimates, and background on the 2022 Pretoria agreement.
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