Maggie Haberman told the Texas Tribune Festival she sees JD Vance as the most likely Republican nominee if he chooses to run, aligning with Garrett Haake’s "four lanes" description of the GOP. Haberman noted Vance’s private skepticism of U.S. military intervention — and his concerns about the conflict with Iran that escalated in February — could complicate his path. President Trump has not formally endorsed a successor, has kept both Vance and Marco Rubio in play, and has not ruled out running again in 2028.
Haberman: JD Vance Is the Likely GOP Nominee—But His Stance on the Iran War Could Complicate Things
Rubio and Vance are believed to be the top contenders in Trump's mind. / Nathan Howard / REUTERS
Maggie Haberman, speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival, said she believes JD Vance is the most likely Republican presidential nominee if he chooses to run — though his private reservations about the U.S. conflict with Iran could complicate his path.
Haberman has reported on Vance's hesitations surrounding the Iran war. / Win McNamee / Getty Images
Haberman’s Read Of The Race
Haberman largely echoed NBC News correspondent Garrett Haake’s framing that the GOP can be understood as moving through several "lanes," including a lane for the preferred successor to Donald Trump — a candidate who benefits from inside-the-White-House backing. As Haake put it: "Presumably, that's JD Vance. Unless JD Vance decides, for whatever reason, [he] doesn't want it, or is somehow disqualified, then maybe it's Marco Rubio."
Trump has seemed at certain points ready to throw Vance under the bus. / Brian Snyder / REUTERS
Vance And The Iran War
Haberman warned that the main caveat to Vance’s frontrunner status is his skepticism about U.S. military intervention. She has previously reported that Vance privately voiced concerns when President Trump escalated the conflict with Iran in February — a stance that could alienate elements of the MAGA base or complicate his relationship with Trump if the war remains politically fraught.
Rubio has said he won't run if Vance does. / Daniel Heuer / REUTERS
"It is likely JD Vance's nomination if he wants it," Haberman said, "but his feelings about Trump's war with Iran could complicate the matter."
Trump’s Role And Reaction
President Trump has not formally endorsed a 2028 successor and has signaled he could be content with either Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio without making a binding choice. Trump has at times played both candidates along, asking associates — including at Mar-a-Lago and at a White House dinner — whom he should back and gauging reactions by applause.
In public, the 80-year-old president still desperately claims he will launch an unconstitutional bid for a third term in office. / Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Trump has also joked about shifting blame if the Iran conflict goes poorly: "This way, if it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD," he said in June. He later added with a smile, "You better be careful, JD. He's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here."
Where Rubio Stands And What Comes Next
Rubio has said he would not run if Vance enters the race. Still, Trump continues to show signs he is unwilling to cede control of the party: he frequently wears a "Trump 2028" hat and has not ruled out seeking another term himself. As Trump said in July: "In two and a half years, you may have a different president — may."
With the 2028 contest still years away, key questions remain: will Vance accept a run, how will the Iran conflict influence Republican primary dynamics, and whether Trump ultimately endorses a successor or re-enters the field himself.
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