A Median Strategies poll (July 30–Aug. 5) puts Mayor Karen Bass ahead of City Councilwoman Nithya Raman, 50.2% to 38.4%, with 11.4% undecided. Roughly 85.2% of Spencer Pratt’s June primary voters now say they will support Bass, reinforcing her appeal as the more moderate option. Bass leads strongly in South L.A. and the San Fernando Valley; Raman holds a narrow edge in parts of the Eastside and Northeast L.A. The survey of 560 likely voters has a ±4.1 point margin of error.
Poll: Spencer Pratt Voters Propel Karen Bass to Double-Digit Lead Over Nithya Raman
A new Median Strategies poll conducted July 30–Aug. 5 shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass holding a double-digit lead over City Councilwoman Nithya Raman in the November mayoral runoff — a margin driven largely by a migration of Spencer Pratt’s primary supporters toward the incumbent.
Spencer Pratt meets with African American and Latino voters on Saturday, May 30, 2026, in Tim Gilliam Park in Los Angeles, California. Pratt is running for mayor of the city of Los Angeles. London Entertainment for CA Post
The survey of 560 likely runoff voters finds Bass at 50.2% and Raman at 38.4%, with 11.4% undecided. With Bass just above the 50% mark in this snapshot, the numbers suggest she could secure a majority if they hold through Election Day.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass speaks during a press conference regarding updates on a warehouse fire at Lineage Cold Storage on Sunday, June 21, 2026, in Boyle Heights, California. Jon Putman for CA Post
Pratt Voters Break for Bass
One of the clearest takeaways: roughly 85.2% of respondents who supported reality-TV figure Spencer Pratt in the June primary now say they will back Bass in November, compared with 6.8% for Raman and about 8% who remain undecided. That shift appears to reinforce Bass’s position as the more moderate alternative for many former Pratt backers.
LA Mayoral candidate Nithya Raman speaks at a press conference Friday, July 24, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. for CA Post
Geographic Breakdown
Bass leads most regions in the poll. She is strongest in South Los Angeles (55.7% to Raman’s 33.9%) and holds a wide lead in the San Fernando Valley (53.9% to 37.1%). Raman posts a narrow advantage in Eastside and Northeast Los Angeles — areas that overlap with her City Council district — where she leads 45.8% to 44.6%.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass delivers a speech at Stevenson Middle School in Los Angeles on Thursday, July 9, 2026. The town hall meeting was held to discuss the status of recovery efforts from the eight-day fire at Lineage's cold-storage warehouse in the Boyle Heights neighborhood. Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
The Harbor/South Bay area is tied at 38.8% for each candidate and has the highest share of undecided voters (22.4%), a region that could prove pivotal if those voters break in one direction.
Councilwoman and LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman holds a press conference in Studio City on Friday, July 24, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. The press conference was held after Los Angeles' homeless count showed more people are living on the street in the city. MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Political Context
Raman was recently removed from the City Council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee after a 13–1 vote, drawing criticism from colleagues about her leadership. Councilmember Imelda Padilla criticized Raman’s tenure on the committee, saying it was “the most unproductive time I’ve had on council” and arguing the council needed action rather than “all talk.”
Poll Methodology And What’s Next
The survey sampled 560 likely voters and carries a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. With 64 respondents still undecided, turnout and late decisions could change the race’s dynamics between now and November.
While this poll gives Bass a comfortable lead, the contest could tighten if undecided voters trend toward Raman or turnout patterns differ from the poll’s assumptions.
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