Quick Summary: The July 27–30 Texas Pulse poll (n=619, MOE ±4.7) finds Democrats narrowing margins in several Texas statewide contests and taking the lead in the lieutenant governor race. Gov. Greg Abbott holds a slim 46%–45% edge over Gina Hinojosa, while Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick 48%–46%. Other recent polls (TSU, TPOR, Fox News, NYT, UT) show varying margins, leaving November's outcomes unsettled.
Texas Races Tighten: Democrats Close Gaps — One Contest Flips in Latest Poll
Campaign yard signs for Texas Rep. Vikki Goodwin, Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor; state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, Democratic candidate for governor; and state Sen. Nathan Johnson, Democratic candidate for attorney general, tied to a fence Saturday, July 18, 2026, in downtown Lubbock.
Republicans who held steady advantages in key Texas statewide contests are seeing those leads narrow — and in one race a Democrat now leads, according to a Texas Pulse survey released Aug. 7.
Poll Snapshot
The Texas Pulse poll, conducted July 27–30 by ReconMR for the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, interviewed 619 likely Texas voters (margin of error ±4.7 percentage points). Respondents self-identified as 36% Republican, 33% independent and 29% Democratic.
A Lubbock County resident holds up a "¡TSAT por Gina!" sign while Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa speaks at a Democratic candidate rally on July 18, 2026, in Lubbock, Texas. Hinojosa is set to face Republican Gov. Greg Abbott during the November election.
Where The Races Stand
Governor: The Texas Pulse survey shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott at 46% and Democrat State Rep. Gina Hinojosa at 45% — a one-point margin and a five-point movement toward Democrats since Texas Pulse's June poll. Earlier surveys vary: a June 30 New York Times poll had Abbott ahead 51% to 44%, and a June 22 University of Texas poll showed a 47% to 40% Abbott lead.
Lieutenant Governor: The Aug. 7 Texas Pulse results mark a flip: Democrat State Rep. Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 48% to 46%. That contrasts with an Aug. 4 Texas Southern University (TSU) poll that showed Patrick ahead 46% to 39% and with Texas Pulse's June survey that had Patrick up 49% to 44%. If elected, Goodwin would be the first woman to serve as Texas lieutenant governor.
Texas state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, Democratic candidate for Texas lieutenant governor, speaks with a Lubbock County resident during a Democratic candidate rally on July 18, 2026, in Lubbock, Texas. Goodwin is set to face Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick in the November election.
U.S. Senate: Republican State Sen. Mayes Middleton leads Democrat State Sen. Nathan Johnson 46% to 44% in the Texas Pulse poll. Other recent polls show mixed margins: a July 28 TPOR poll reported the two essentially tied, and a TSU Aug. 4 poll showed Middleton up 46% to 41%.
Attorney General: Texas Pulse finds Democrat State Rep. James Talarico at 47% and incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 43% — inside the poll's margin of error. A July 30 Fox News poll and a July 28 TPOR survey similarly showed Talarico with narrow leads.
Texas state Sen. Nathan Johnson, Democratic candidate for Texas attorney general, points to a Lubbock County resident while speaking at a Democratic candidate rally on July 18, 2026, in Lubbock, Texas. Johnson is set to face Republican candidate Mayes Middleton in the November election.
What It Means
"The governor's race looks much more competitive than it did in June, suggesting that Democrats could have opportunities in several statewide contests," said Kirby Goidel, political science professor at Texas A&M. He noted that many voters remain unfamiliar with some challengers, which may cause voters to rely on party cues and the broader political environment.
Overall, recent polls present a mixed picture: TSU's Aug. 4 survey generally showed Republicans with comfortable margins in several contests, while Texas Pulse's Aug. 7 results indicate Democrats are gaining ground in multiple statewide races. With several matchups within or near polling margins of error, the November outcomes remain uncertain.
Reporter: Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Tips: [email protected].
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