Recent polling and forecaster moves show the Texas governor's race tightening between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Fox News shifted the race to "Lean Republican" on Sept. 22 while RealClearPolitics labeled it a toss-up after Hinojosa narrowed Abbott's polling advantage. A Texas Southern University poll (Sept. 15–19, n=1,800, MOE ±2.31) finds Abbott ahead 49% to 45%, but strong demographic splits favor Hinojosa among Latino, Black and younger voters. The combined data point to a much more competitive contest heading into the Nov. 3, 2026 election.
Texas Governor's Race Tightens: Abbott Sees Lead Narrow as Forecasters Shift Ratings
DALLAS, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 10: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks on stage on the second day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 10, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. U.S. President Donald Trump is headlining the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3.
The contest for Texas governor has grown distinctly more competitive as recent polls and forecaster moves narrow the gap between Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Shifts by major outlets and fresh survey data suggest the race could be much closer than earlier indicators implied ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026 election.
Forecasters Adjust Outlook
On Sept. 22, Fox News moved the Abbott–Hinojosa contest from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican," citing voter concerns about the effects of rapid data-center construction on local resources as a key issue. That followed RealClearPolitics' Sept. 17 reclassification of the race as a toss-up after aggregate polling showed notable tightening.
RealClearPolitics' polling averages indicate that Hinojosa has trimmed Abbott's advantage from roughly a 7-point lead on April 29, 2026, to about a 2.2-point lead margin as of Sept. 22. The Cook Political Report had earlier shifted the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," in part noting Abbott's relative lack of heavy attack advertising at the time.
Texas Southern University Poll: Close But Competitive
A Texas Southern University (TSU) poll released Sept. 22 (fielded Sept. 15–19) surveyed 1,800 likely voters and reports a margin of error of ±2.31 percentage points. The survey shows Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 45%.
The TSU poll also highlights name recognition and favorability gaps: 99% of likely voters say they know enough about Abbott to form an opinion versus 79% for Hinojosa. Abbott posts a slight negative favorability balance (49% favorable, 50% unfavorable), while Hinojosa has a positive net rating (42% favorable, 37% unfavorable).
Demographic Breakdowns (TSU Poll)
White voters: Abbott 59%, Hinojosa 35%.
Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa speaks during a campaign rally as part of the "New American Dream Tour" in Beeville, Texas, on August 22, 2026.
Latino voters: Hinojosa 57%, Abbott 40%.
Black voters: Hinojosa 80%, Abbott 13%.
By gender: Men—Abbott 54%, Hinojosa 39%; Women—Hinojosa 51%, Abbott 44%.
By age: Abbott leads 60% to 36% among likely voters 55+; Hinojosa leads 50% to 44% among ages 35–54 and 71% to 21% among voters under 35.
Other Recent September Polls
Several September surveys show a competitive race with varied results:
- Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
- ReconMR Texas (Sept. 17) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%.
- Mason-Dixon (Sept. 15) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 41%.
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 44%.
- N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Abbott 47%, Hinojosa 47% (tie).
What This Means
Taken together, shifting forecasts and tightening polls indicate the Texas governor's race has moved from comfortably Republican toward a genuinely competitive contest. Key factors include demographic divides, issue salience (such as concerns over data-center growth and its local impacts), differing favorability profiles, and younger and minority voter intensity that favors Hinojosa. With the election set for Nov. 3, 2026, both campaigns are likely to intensify outreach efforts, advertising and voter-turnout strategies.
Reporting note: Original coverage by USA TODAY and Texas Connect reporter Mateo Rosiles.
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