A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll finds President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated runoff, with Lula at 46% and Flavio at 45%. First‑round scenarios show Lula at about 41% and Flavio between 36% and 38% depending on other candidates. The survey of 2,028 respondents was conducted April 24–26 and carries a ±2 percentage‑point margin of error. Markets have followed polls closely since jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son in December.
Poll: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Neck‑and‑Neck in Simulated Runoff — 46% to 45%
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, March 31, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday shows Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie in a simulated second‑round matchup for this year's presidential election.
Head‑to‑Head Result: The survey put leftist Lula at 46% and right‑wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 45% in a one‑on‑one runoff simulation — effectively a dead heat within the poll's margin of error.
First‑Round Scenarios: In three different first‑round simulations modeled by the poll, Lula was projected to win about 41% of the vote, while Flavio Bolsonaro's share ranged from 36% to 38%, depending on which other candidates were included.
Context: A March survey from the same pollster had both candidates tied at 46% each in a similar second‑round test. Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a runoff — a process used in every presidential election since 2002.
Political Backdrop: Markets and political observers have been tracking polling closely since jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flavio, now 44, in December. Lula, 80, who defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is campaigning to win a fourth non‑consecutive presidential term.
Methodology: Nexus interviewed 2,028 respondents between April 24 and April 26; the poll's margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; editing by Alison Williams. This article summarizes the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll and places the numbers in electoral context.
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