Researchers studying 130 countries over the past decade find that rising temperatures are linked to higher poverty and could push an additional 62.3–98.7 million people into poverty by 2030. Poverty rose by up to 1.18 percentage points per 1.8°F of warming. The team also examined inequality and found some evidence that colder climates are associated with lower inequality in wealthier countries. They urge that climate risks be factored into social and economic policy.
Study: Warming Could Push Tens of Millions Into Poverty — "Poverty And Inequality Are Closely Intertwined"
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Researchers analyzing poverty trends in 130 countries over the past decade warn that rising temperatures could push tens of millions more people into poverty. The team found poverty increased by up to 1.18 percentage points for every 1.8°F (1°C) of warming — a change that could mean an additional 62.3–98.7 million people living in poverty by 2030 compared with a no-warming scenario.
Why This Matters
Earth's climate has shifted many times across the last 800,000 years — including multiple ice ages — largely due to natural orbital cycles and ocean patterns such as El Niño and La Niña. But, as NASA explains, "the current warming cannot be explained by the Sun." Human-produced greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and industrial chlorofluorocarbons — are the primary drivers of today's rapid warming, with fossil fuels (gas, oil and coal) producing the bulk of these emissions.
Economic And Social Impacts
Rising temperatures are already altering everyday life and economic stability: insurance premiums and the price of basic goods are climbing as extreme weather events become more frequent; farmers are finding it harder to maintain profits; and agricultural workers face growing risks from extreme heat and unsafe working conditions.
What The Study Found
The authors analyzed not only poverty rates but the full income distribution to assess inequality. They emphasize that "poverty and inequality are closely intertwined" and report evidence that temperature regimes can shape how income is distributed. In particular, their results suggest that wealthier countries may experience lower inequality under colder temperature regimes, although social, cultural and institutional factors also play major roles.
"These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change," the authors write.
While the mechanisms linking temperature to economic outcomes are complex — involving agricultural productivity, health impacts, labor supply and market stability — the study provides concrete numbers policymakers can use. The researchers argue climate trends should be integrated into economic and social planning to limit future losses from warming and protect vulnerable populations.
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