Crockett vs. Talarico: First Texas Senate Primary Debate Tests Electability Ahead Of March 3

Texas Democrats Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico meet Saturday in the first debate of a closely watched Senate primary that could shape Democrats’ chances in a tough statewide contest. With the March 3 primary approaching, both candidates must make the case that they can win statewide while persuading Democratic primary voters that they are best positioned to unseat the Republican nominee this fall.

What’s At Stake

The Cook Political Report currently rates the open Texas Senate seat as "Likely Republican," but Democrats see opportunities after several recent competitive cycles. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Colin Allred ran strong statewide campaigns in recent years, and party strategists say a well-positioned Democratic nominee could benefit if the GOP nominates a polarizing figure.

Polling And Money

Polling is mixed. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of likely Democratic primary voters gave Talarico a nine-point edge over Crockett, with about 15% undecided. A Crockett-backed HIT Strategies poll published in the El Paso Times showed Crockett ahead by 13 points, and a December Texas Southern University poll also showed Crockett leading by eight. Operatives caution early polling can be volatile with many voters still undecided.

Talarico, who launched his campaign in September, has raised more than $13 million and benefited from heavy outside spending. AdImpact data show Talarico and allied groups have outspent Crockett’s operation by roughly 10-to-1 overall and about 5-to-1 since Crockett entered the race.

Contrasting Styles

James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher, has emphasized pragmatic appeals to general-election voters and boosted his profile with social media and legislative work. Supporters say his approach could be broadly appealing in a statewide contest.

Jasmine Crockett, a former public defender and high-profile progressive in the U.S. House, has adopted a more combative, anti-Trump posture that energizes activists but some strategists worry could be risky in a state that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.

"Either Talarico or Crockett needs to be emphasizing this: that they know that they’re in trouble, folks, and … ‘I’m the person to get us over the top and get a victory in the state,’" said Jon Taylor, chair of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

How The GOP Primary Shapes The Race

Much depends on the GOP primary. Recent Emerson polling placed Ken Paxton at 27%, Sen. John Cornyn at 26%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16% — a split that could produce a runoff if no candidate clears 50%. In head-to-head hypotheticals, Emerson found Paxton tied with both Democratic contenders, while Cornyn led Talarico by three points and Crockett by five.

Debate Details

The hourlong forum, hosted by the Texas AFL-CIO, will be moderated by KXAN-TV anchor Daniel Marin and Dallas Morning News political writer Gromer Jeffers and will air on Nexstar Texas stations at 2 p.m. CST. The debate is expected to focus on electability, messaging for a statewide electorate, and which approach Democrats should favor in a tough general election environment.

Early voting for the March 3 primary begins Feb. 17, leaving candidates a narrow window to persuade primary voters and prepare for the general election fight that will hinge heavily on the outcome of the GOP primary.