Fact Check: Trump’s One-Year Return Address Repeats Multiple False or Misleading Claims

President Donald Trump marked the first anniversary of his return to the White House with an on-camera statement and a follow-up question-and-answer session. In that appearance he reiterated many claims he has made over the past year. This fact check examines several of the most consequential statements, provides corrected figures and context, and explains where the original claims are misleading or inaccurate.

Gas Prices

“I guess the average now, they’re saying, is $2.31.”

That figure omits important context and is inaccurate as a national average. Data published by AAA showed the national average gasoline price at roughly $2.82 per gallon on the day in question. No state had a statewide average below $2; the lowest state average was about $2.31 in Oklahoma. A very small number of individual stations (fewer than 100 out of roughly 150,000 tracked by GasBuddy) were selling gas for under $2, typically because of local promotions or special discounts.

Prescription Drug Prices

Trump claimed deals under his "Most Favored Nation" approach would slash drug prices by “300, 400, 500, and even 600%.” Those percentages are mathematically impossible: a 100% price cut reduces a price to zero, and anything above 100% would imply companies pay patients to take medicines. While the administration has secured some price-reduction agreements for a limited set of drugs, the hyperbolic percentage figures are baseless and misleading.

Grocery Prices And Overall Inflation

Mr. Trump said “many of the groceries have come way down,” and also claimed there is “no inflation” or “very little inflation.” Some grocery items, such as eggs, have declined in price, but aggregate data tell a different story. Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures show overall grocery prices rose about 1.9% year over year, with December registering a 0.7% month-to-month increase—the fastest monthly gain in over three years—and groceries up roughly 2.4% year over year in December. The CPI also showed consumer prices were about 2.7% higher in December than a year earlier and 0.3% higher than the prior month, indicating inflation persists.

Biden-Era Inflation

Trump said he “inherited very high prices” and suggested inflation was at a historic maximum. Year-over-year inflation did peak at about 9.1% in June 2022 (roughly a 40-year high), but that level was far below the all-time U.S. inflation record (about 23.7% in 1920). By January 2025, when Trump returned to office, inflation had fallen to about 3.0%.

Investment Announcements

Trump repeated a frequently cited figure that $18 trillion in investment was flowing into the United States because of his election. That $18 trillion number is not supported by the White House's own listings at the time, which amounted to about $9.6 trillion in "major investment announcements." Even that $9.6 trillion figure has been criticized as inflated because it includes vague pledges, references to bilateral trade, and announcements that do not necessarily represent concrete, committed capital being invested in the U.S.

Taxes On Social Security

Trump said he delivered “no tax on Social Security.” The 2025 domestic bill created a temporary additional deduction (about $6,000 per year for many individuals aged 65 and older), but the White House acknowledges that millions of Social Security recipients will continue to pay taxes on benefits. The deduction expires in 2028 and does not apply to beneficiaries younger than 65, so the claim of no Social Security tax is inaccurate.

Prison Releases And Migration

Mr. Trump asserted that “many countries opened up their prisons and dropped them into the United States,” naming Venezuela as an example. Independent experts and organizations say there is no evidence that Venezuela or other countries systematically emptied prisons or mental-health facilities to send people to the U.S. Specialists who study Venezuelan migration and international prison systems have found no proof supporting the claim.

Wars, Peace Claims And Past Presidents

Trump said he “ended eight unendable wars” and suggested prior presidents had likely never settled wars. That list is an overstatement: it mixes diplomatic disputes and paused conflicts with full-fledged wars. Several conflicts cited by the administration continued after agreements were negotiated (for example, fighting persisted in the Democratic Republic of Congo after a Trump-brokered accord that was not signed by the main rebel coalition), and combat flared again between Thailand and Cambodia despite a 2025 agreement. Historically, U.S. presidents have played major roles in ending or mediating wars, including cases involving Theodore Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton.

Gulf Of Mexico Coastline

Trump said the United States holds 92% of the Gulf of Mexico shoreline. That percentage is incorrect: experts and measurements show the U.S. share is much closer to half, depending on measurement methods. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency lists the U.S. Gulf coastline at about 1,630 miles; the 92% figure is not supported by geographic data.

NATO Spending Commitments

Trump said NATO members agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP and that allies are already paying that level. In fact, the 5% figure refers to a long-range commitment stretching to 2035 and most allies are far from that level today. NATO's plan establishes a higher long-term goal while the immediate core defense target is roughly 3.5% of GDP; in 2025 only a few members were at or above 3.5%. Separately, while many allies lagged earlier, a majority of NATO members met or exceeded the 2% guideline by 2024 (NATO reported 18 of 31 relevant members at or above 2%).

Elections And Public Media Funding

Trump repeated the debunked claim that the 2020 election was stolen; Joe Biden legitimately won that election. He also exaggerated his lead in 2024 polling after a mid-2024 debate—polls generally showed single-digit leads rather than a 25-point advantage. Regarding public media, the federal funding stream for some public broadcasting support was cut in 2025 and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting's board voted to dissolve that distribution nonprofit, but NPR and PBS as organizations continue to operate. Some local stations have closed or announced plans to close because of lost funding, but the national entities remain active.

Fentanyl And Overdose Deaths

Trump claimed “we lost, I believe, 300,000 people last year, this year.” That number is not supported by official data. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated roughly 81,711 total overdose deaths (all drugs combined) for the 12 months ending December 2024; the most recent 12-month estimate available through August 2025 was about 72,836. Public-health experts called the 300,000 figure fabricated.

Bottom Line: Many of the president's most striking figures and characterizations in this anniversary address are inaccurate, exaggerated, or lack supporting evidence. Official statistics and independent expert analysis provide clearer context on prices, investments, crime and migration, NATO commitments, public media funding, and overdose deaths.

Sources referenced in this fact check include government economic data (CPI), AAA fuel-price reports, GasBuddy analyses, White House investment listings, NATO reports, and CDC overdose estimates, along with reporting and expert commentary from independent organizations.