Scientists forecast 2025 will be one of the three warmest years on record, likely behind 2024 and 2023. Global measurements from weather stations, buoys and satellites show temperatures well above climatological norms, and recent years have moved averages closer to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C benchmark. Experts say that even La Niña cooling could not prevent near-record warmth, and rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions are needed to meet international climate targets.
2025 Poised To Be Among The Three Warmest Years Ever, Highlighting Human-Driven Warming
Scientists project that 2025 will rank among the three warmest years on record worldwide, likely trailing only 2024 and 2023. Global surface temperature measurements from weather stations, ocean buoys and satellites show average temperatures continuing to run well above climatological norms.
Although 2025 was influenced primarily by a La Niña pattern — a natural cooling of Pacific Ocean waters — surface temperatures still reached near-record levels, underscoring the strength of the long-term warming trend.
Data and Context
Temperature estimates combine observations from land stations, ocean buoys and satellite retrievals. This three-year sequence of extreme warmth has pushed global temperatures further toward the 1.5°C benchmark referenced in the 2015 Paris Agreement; in some analyses recent short-term averages approach or exceed that threshold, highlighting the narrowing window for meeting international climate goals.
Why Consecutive Records Matter
Scientists caution that the precise ranking of individual years is less important than the persistent trend. Multiple successive years occupying the top spots point to an accelerating pattern of warming driven largely by human activity — primarily the continued burning of fossil fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions.
What Scientists Are Saying
“The science is increasingly clear,” said Friederike Otto, co‑founder of World Weather Attribution. “If we don’t stop burning fossil fuels very, very quickly, it will be extremely difficult to meet that goal.”
Researchers warn that even temporary natural cooling events such as La Niña cannot offset the broader human-caused warming trend. Rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to reduce the risk of more frequent and severe heat extremes, sea-level rise, and other climate impacts.
What comes next: Policymakers and communities face increasingly urgent choices about emissions reductions, adaptation planning and investments in resilience as global temperatures remain at historically high levels.
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