Russia struck infrastructure in Ukraine's Lviv region with an Oreshnik IRBM, about 70 km from the EU border, in what analysts say was a deliberate message to Western leaders. Moscow claims it was retaliation for an alleged December drone attack on a Putin residence, a charge Kyiv denies. Experts describe the move as largely psychological and costly, while Western leaders called the attack "escalatory and unacceptable." The Oreshnik's hypersonic capabilities are disputed by Western analysts.
Putin Sends Stark Message to the West With Oreshnik Missile Strike Near EU Border
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said a Russian nuclear-capable missile known as the 'Oreshnik' had been deployed in Belarus (Handout)(Handout/Russian Defence Ministry/AFP)
Russia launched an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at infrastructure in Ukraine's Lviv region late Thursday into Friday, striking a target roughly 70 kilometres (about 40 miles) from the European Union border. Analysts said the move appears intended to intimidate Kyiv's Western backers and signal President Vladimir Putin's displeasure after recent foreign-policy setbacks.
Moscow said the strike was carried out in retaliation for an alleged drone attack on a Putin residence in December — a claim Kyiv denies. Observers believe this is only the second known combat use of the Oreshnik, following an earlier strike on Dnipro in 2024.
What Analysts Say
Experts told AFP and other outlets that the choice of weapon and target location was as much political and psychological as military.
"Vladimir Putin is using this to communicate with the West, because he could undoubtedly achieve the same operational effects without this missile," said Cyrille Bret of the Montaigne Institute in Paris.
Etienne Marcuz of the Foundation for Strategic Research described the strike as "a deliberate signal to European countries," and said its impact was likely "more psychological than operational." Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan called the attack "a psychological weapon — an instrument of Putin's cognitive war against Ukraine and the West," arguing it reflected a leader who felt constrained rather than confident.
Reactions From Europe
The leaders of Britain, France and Germany condemned the use of the missile as "escalatory and unacceptable," according to a UK government spokeswoman. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Russia was using "fabricated allegations to justify the attack." Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovy warned the strike marked "a new level of threat — not only for Ukraine, but also for the security of Europe."
About the Oreshnik
The Kremlin has promoted the Oreshnik as a "state-of-the-art" weapon capable of hypersonic flight, long-range strikes across Europe and being difficult to intercept. Western analysts dispute the hypersonic claim, saying the missile is likely an advanced IRBM rather than a true hypersonic system and that Europe has options for intercepting such launches.
Observers note the missile may carry multiple warheads, which could complicate interception depending on the timing of their release. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in December that the weapon had been deployed in Belarus, which borders NATO's eastern flank.
Implications
Commentators highlighted the Oreshnik's high cost and argued the strike made limited military sense if judged purely on battlefield effectiveness. Timothy Ash, an economist who follows Russia, called the deployment "more a PR exercise" and suggested it was intended to signal Moscow's broader displeasure to Western capitals.
Whatever the intent, the strike underscores growing tensions over Europe's eastern neighbourhood and reinforces calls for stronger air-defence coordination among NATO and EU partners.
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