The youngest Gen Z voters—particularly men aged 18–29—have shown dramatic volatility: after shifting 6–21 points toward Trump in 2024, many have swung back and now favor Democratic congressional control by about 17 points. New surveys (including an October YMRP–YouGov study and Harvard and Yale youth polls) show the youngest cohort is especially anti-establishment and pessimistic. Analysts point to economic insecurity, pandemic-era disruption, and anti-incumbent sentiment as key drivers, suggesting young voters remain persuadable but far from monolithic.
Why the Youngest Gen Z Are Turning on Trump — And What It Means
Attendees pray with Pastor John Amanchukwu (out of frame) as he leads the daily prayer at Turning Point's annual AmericaFest conference, in remembrance of late right-wing political activist Charlie Kirk, in Phoenix, Arizona, on December 18, 2025. | Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images
After a surprising swing by young voters toward Republicans in 2024, a growing body of polling suggests the youngest cohort of Gen Z is now moving sharply away from Donald Trump. New surveys point to a more complex generational split than a simple progressive-versus-conservative story: the youngest voters appear to be more anti-establishment, volatile, and dissatisfied — and that discontent is cutting against Trump as well as against incumbents more broadly.
What the Data Shows
Estimates vary, but Gen Z shifted anywhere from about 6 to 21 points toward Trump in 2024 compared with 2020. More recent polls, however, show many of those gains have reversed: young voters now favor Democratic control of Congress by roughly 17 points for 2026 and express markedly higher disapproval of Trump than they did earlier in the year.
Young Men: A Turbulent Subset
An October survey from the Young Men’s Research Project (YMRP), conducted with YouGov and focused on men ages 18–29, finds that the youngest cohort is swinging away from Trump even faster than older Gen Z men. The YMRP study echoes other youth-focused polls from Harvard and Yale documenting growing cynicism about the country's direction and shifting views on presidency and policy.
Key findings from YMRP: the youngest men report higher levels of pessimism about the nation’s trajectory and stronger disapproval of several Trump policies (including ICE tactics, school vaccine mandates, and federal worker firings). On Trump approval specifically, the younger cohort was about 6 points more negative than the older cohort.
Social Attitudes: A Surprise Divide
Contrary to some earlier readings, YMRP found older Gen Z men holding more socially conservative views on gender roles and expressing greater skepticism toward LGBTQ people than their younger peers. That result complicates the narrative that younger Gen Z is uniformly more right-leaning on cultural issues.
“Young men as a whole are about the least ideological generation or demographic of any voting demographic there is,” said Charlie Sabgir, author of the YMRP report, noting that many young men have not committed to fixed ideological positions the way young women often have.
Explaining the Volatility
Analysts offer two complementary explanations. One emphasizes economic frustration: many young voters who backed Trump in 2024 were motivated by cost-of-living concerns and may now be disillusioned if policy outcomes have not improved. The other emphasizes an anti-system or anti-incumbent sentiment especially strong among the pandemic-era cohort: those who graduated or attended college during Covid often feel the economic and social effects of that disruption more acutely.
G. Elliott Morris frames the divide this way: the youngest Gen Z is more likely to be anti-incumbent and pessimistic, which helps explain why they could swing against Democrats in 2024 and then turn on Trump in 2025–26.
Implications
These patterns matter for future elections and political messaging. Rather than a single monolithic youth bloc, Gen Z contains distinct, shifting segments with different grievances and priorities. The youngest voters’ volatility suggests they remain persuadable, but they also demand responses to economic insecurity and perceived institutional failure. Political parties and leaders who treat young voters as a fixed constituency risk misreading a generation defined by change and frustration.
Bottom line: The youngest Gen Z voters are not simply trending uniformly conservative or liberal. They are more anti-system, more volatile, and more likely to punish incumbents on both sides when their expectations are unmet.
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