Emerson Poll: Voters Most Likely To Prefer A Moderate Republican — Mixed 2028 Matchups

An Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted Dec. 14–15 maps which presidential archetype Americans say they would prefer and lays out several hypothetical 2028 matchups.

Key Findings

Most Preferred Archetype: When asked to choose between a progressive Democrat, a MAGA Republican, a moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican, the largest share of respondents said they would pick a moderate Republican. That was followed by a moderate Democrat, a progressive Democrat and, last, a MAGA Republican.

Hypothetical 2028 Matchups: In head-to-head scenarios presented by the poll: a progressive Democrat narrowly led a MAGA Republican (43% to 42%); a moderate Republican led a progressive Democrat (48% to 36%); a moderate Democrat led a MAGA Republican (47% to 38%); and a moderate Republican led a moderate Democrat (44% to 39%).

Presidential Approval and Congressional Ballot: President Donald Trump’s approval is underwater by nine points, at 41% approval versus 50% disapproval. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats hold a two-point edge, 44% to 42%.

Issue Grades: Voters gave Trump more A’s than F’s on immigration (37% A vs. 36% F). By contrast, his record received more failing grades than A’s on the economy (22% A vs. 36% F), affordability (17% A vs. 38% F) and health care (14% A vs. 38% F).

What It Means

Taken together, the Emerson results suggest voters are more comfortable with moderate candidates than with the political extremes represented in the survey. While neither Trump nor his agenda appears broadly popular, Republican prospects may still benefit from voters’ negative assessments of former President Joe Biden’s tenure.

Poll details: Emerson College, 1,000 registered voters, Dec. 14–15.