Recent national polls show the share of Americans who strongly approve of President Trump has dropped to roughly one in five, reaching new lows in many surveys. Several polls — including NBC News–SurveyMonkey, AP-NORC, Reuters-Ipsos, Fox News, and Marquette — report readings in the high teens to low 20s; Marist is an outlier at 26% but still a second-term low. A shrinking intensely loyal base weakens Trump’s leverage over Republicans and may make some lawmakers feel freer to break with him.
Only About 1 In 5 Strongly Back Trump: Polls Show Core Support Near Second-Term Lows
Fireworks go off as supporters of President Donald Trump leave a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on July 3, 2025. - Scott Olson/Getty Images/File
A year ago, President Donald Trump framed his victory as a sweeping mandate. "America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he said shortly after Election Day, and he repeated the idea in his inaugural remarks that the nation was unifying behind his agenda.
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
Those claims were widely overstated then, and recent polling makes them even harder to reconcile with the political reality he now faces. While overall approval ratings matter, political scientists and strategists often point to the share of voters who strongly approve as the better barometer of a leader’s真正 base—and that measure for Trump has slipped to roughly one in five Americans.
What the Polls Show
A series of national surveys in recent weeks has recorded new second-term lows (or near-lows) for the share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump:
- NBC News–SurveyMonkey: Strong approval fell from 26% in April to 21% in the latest poll; among self-identified MAGA Republicans it dropped from 78% to 70%.
- AP-NORC: 18% this month — the only lower readings in that survey’s history were 15% (Dec. 2017) and 16% (June 2017).
- Reuters-Ipsos: 19% this month, down from 29% in January.
- Fox News: 22% in the most recent poll; his prior low across both terms was 25%.
- Marquette University Law School: 21% last month — the lowest second-term reading in that survey.
- Marist (NPR/PBS): An outlier at 26%, but still a new low for his second term and similar to levels seen after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Across these polls, the pattern is consistent: the intensely devoted segment of Trump’s following appears smaller than it has been for much of his presidency.
Why Strong Approval Matters
Strong approval reflects voters who are most likely to turn out, defend, and mobilize on behalf of a politician. For Trump, that intense loyalty has been the foundation of his influence within the Republican Party—making other Republicans hesitant to criticize or oppose him. A shrinking "strongly approve" cohort therefore weakens his unilateral leverage over GOP lawmakers.
Political Implications
A reduced core following does not mean immediate defections, but it can change incentives for Republican officials. Some lawmakers may feel less politically vulnerable if they break with him. Recent examples that suggest growing independence among Republicans include House members who pushed to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, high-profile pushback from figures such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in different contexts, and an Indiana State Senate vote in which a GOP majority declined to redraw congressional maps to satisfy Trump’s request.
That combination — declining intense support plus isolated GOP resistance — suggests Trump’s claim of a broad, unassailable mandate is weaker than he asserts.
Bottom line: Watch the "strongly approve" metric. If it continues to fall, Trump’s ability to command unified party discipline could be increasingly constrained.
