Tennessee Special Election: Can Democrats Turn Late-Year Momentum Into a Surprise in the Deep-Red 7th?

Democrats enter the final special House race of the year in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District hoping to extend a pattern of late-year over-performance that has narrowed Republican margins in recent contests. The outcome could modestly change the balance in the U.S. House and provide an early signal about Democratic energy heading into 2025–26 races.

The seat opened when Republican Mark Green resigned earlier this year; Green had won the district by just over 20 points in 2024. The Democratic nominee, Aftyn Behn, is campaigning on affordability — criticizing recent GOP spending bills and tariffs — and has attracted sizable national attention and resources. Her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps, a former military helicopter pilot, has emphasized conservative turnout and a platform focused on lowering costs and creating jobs.

Outside groups and party organizations from both sides have poured money into the race. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC pledged $1 million to support Behn — the super PAC’s first spending on a special election this year — while GOP-aligned groups and House Republican campaign committees have invested in Van Epps.

Early voting has been unusually robust for a special election. Through Monday, more than 63,000 ballots had been cast either early in person or by mail, roughly 35% of the district’s total turnout in 2022, according to L2 data. By comparison, earlier special House contests this year averaged 57% of the 2022 midterm turnout in their districts, far above the typical special-election pace.

“I think these voters are looking around and life isn’t better. I think people are saying ‘we’ve had enough, we’re fed up,’” Behn said while explaining her affordability-focused message.

National party leaders have made appearances to support Behn, and the campaign has sought to treat the race as a test of whether Democrats can convert motivated voters into gains even in a heavily Republican district that stretches west from Nashville. Van Epps has said that strong conservative turnout will deliver a win and pledged to work with national Republican leaders to address the cost of living for Tennessee families.

Broader context: this year’s special elections have shown a notable Democratic over-performance versus recent House baselines — averaging about a 16-point improvement relative to 2024 House margins. Analysts caution, however, that special-election results can be hard to generalize: they are infrequent, turnout patterns differ from higher-turnout races, and presidential vs. House results can diverge within the same district.

Still, multiple off-year and special contests this cycle — including high-turnout statewide races in Wisconsin, New Jersey, Virginia and a California ballot measure — have illustrated stronger-than-expected Democratic performance and elevated Democratic voter motivation, even as national party favorability ratings remain weak in some polls. How voters in Tennessee’s 7th behave on Election Day will be watched closely for signs that the trend persists in deeply red territory.

Key facts

• District: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District (deep-red, west of Nashville).
• Candidates: Democrat Aftyn Behn vs. Republican Matt Van Epps.
• Early ballots: >63,000 cast (≈35% of 2022 district turnout).
• Outside spending: House Majority PAC pledged $1 million for Behn; GOP-aligned groups are supporting Van Epps.
• Significance: Final special House election of the year and a test of Democratic voter motivation heading into 2025–26.