Is Venezuela Ready for a US Attack? Mobilisation and the Stakes as Washington Expands Naval Forces

Venezuela mobilises as US naval presence grows

Venezuela announced a major nationwide military mobilisation on Tuesday in response to a growing US naval presence off its coasts. On Thursday, Washington disclosed an operation named Southern Spear, which US officials say aims to target 'narco‑terrorists' across the Western Hemisphere. Venezuelan leaders warn the activity could be used as a pretext to pressure or remove President Nicolás Maduro.

Recent strikes and allegations

Tensions have risen after the Trump administration carried out a series of strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific, asserting the boats were involved in narcotics trafficking to the United States. US officials say this week's strike was the 20th in the campaign and that roughly 80 people have been killed in total. The administration has not publicly produced evidence confirming the vessels carried narcotics, were bound for the US, or that the strikes were legally justified — points that legal experts say raise questions under international law.

At the centre of Washington's accusations is an unproven allegation that Maduro colluded with criminal cartels to facilitate drug shipments to the US.

The US carrier and its role

The US has dispatched the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group into Caribbean and Latin American waters. An aircraft carrier operates as a mobile airbase capable of launching, refuelling and recovering aircraft at sea. The Ford is a nuclear‑powered supercarrier that sails with guided‑missile destroyers and support vessels, carries more than 4,000 personnel and hosts dozens of tactical aircraft ready for rapid deployment.

Analysts note the carrier’s presence may serve multiple political and military purposes. Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), observed that while Washington says the mission targets illegal drugs and cartels, the objectives appear to have broadened to include pressure on the Maduro government. Cancian also cautions that a supercarrier like the Ford is not optimally configured for counter‑narcotics work and cannot remain deployed indefinitely due to global demands.

Venezuela's mobilisation and rhetoric

Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced Venezuela had moved to a 'higher phase' of its Independence Plan 200, launched in September to strengthen defences. He said roughly 200,000 troops — including military and civilian participants — were deployed nationwide for the exercise, which was scheduled to start Tuesday and run through Wednesday. Padrino López emphasised unity within the armed forces and framed the mobilisation as resistance to 'imperialist aggression.' He characterized opposition groups as marginal and declared broad public rejection of external aggression.

Capabilities: strengths and limitations

Venezuela's armed forces remain tightly tied to the Chavista movement and a doctrine stressing patriotism and anti‑imperialism. Global Firepower's 2025 ranking places Venezuela 50th out of 160 countries for overall military strength and 7th in Latin America, behind nations such as Brazil, Mexico and Argentina and roughly comparable to Colombia, Chile and Peru.

On air power, CSIS reports Venezuela's fleet is small and only partially operational: of about 49 aircraft, roughly 30 are believed flight‑capable, and only three F‑16s remain flyable due to spare‑parts shortages caused by sanctions. Venezuela has invested in Russian systems and is thought to operate at least 21 Su‑30 fighters, which can carry supersonic anti‑ship missiles (for example, the Kh‑31A) — a credible threat to ships operating near Venezuelan waters. CSIS warns Venezuelan airfields and aircraft would likely be priority targets in a conflict; the US has deployed F‑35 stealth fighters to the region, apparently to counter both Venezuelan jets and integrated air defences.

On the ground, Venezuela fields a numerically large force. Global Firepower lists total armed personnel at about 337,000 for a population near 31 million — including approximately 109,000 regular troops, 220,000 paramilitary members and 8,000 reserves. However, analysts stress these figures mask serious constraints: diminished logistical sustainment, limited conventional combat training after years focused on internal security, and weakened maintenance capacity.

Venezuela's navy, meanwhile, is no match for US maritime power; in conventional terms the United States retains overwhelming superiority. As Elias Ferrer of Orinoco Research and Guacamaya notes, the relevant question is Venezuela's capacity to impose costs through asymmetric or irregular warfare — making an occupation costly and politically fraught for an intervening power.

Political calculus and likely paths

US officials, including President Trump, have justified the increased presence as necessary to disrupt drug flows. Many analysts, however, interpret the military pressure as an effort to increase leverage against Maduro and prompt a political transition without a full‑scale invasion. Venezuelan political scientist Carlos Pina argues Washington still prefers political pressure and hopes to force a negotiated handover or resignation rather than a military occupation.

Pina also warned the American deployment itself creates its own political momentum in Washington: after sending significant equipment, it may be politically costly to withdraw completely, which could incentivise further escalation or sustained pressure short of direct invasion.

Bottom line

In conventional military terms the US holds a decisive advantage. Venezuela, however, has manpower, anti‑ship capabilities and geographic familiarity that could complicate operations and raise the political and material costs of intervention. Most analysts judge a direct US invasion unlikely, favouring instead a campaign of pressure and deterrence — but the current standoff increases the risk of miscalculation and continued escalation.