Permafrost beneath Arctic towns is thawing, undermining infrastructure. Drone-borne geophysics such as VLF-EM, combined with ground sensors and digital-twin models, can map hidden thaw and forecast settlement and load-bearing loss. A 2025 estimate put potential Alaska building and road damages at US$37–51 billion; 2026 projections show that under high emissions most coastal infrastructure could be at risk by the 2090s. These tools help communities prioritize monitoring and adaptation.
Drones and Digital Twins Reveal How Thawing Permafrost Threatens Arctic Infrastructure
A view of Wainwright, Alaska, which sits on low-lying coastal terrain underlain by permafrost. Ming Xiao
From the air, Wainwright, Alaska, looks like a stable ribbon of homes and roads between the Chukchi Sea and broad, flat tundra. But just beneath that calm surface, large bodies of ground ice lie within permafrost. Along eroding coastal bluffs, those hidden ice masses are becoming exposed and literally melting away.
A coastal bluff failure in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, in August 2024 shows cracks and the narrow distance between the eroding edge and buildings. Ming Xiao
Why thawing permafrost matters
This is more than a change in scenery. When ice within permafrost thaws, the ground can settle unevenly: roads sink, buildings tilt, pipelines crack and leak, and shorelines retreat, sometimes placing homes dangerously close to the ocean. A 2025 study estimated that permafrost thaw could cause US$37–51 billion in building and road damage in Alaska alone.
Large thawing ice wedges like this can be found in the permafrost along the Arctic coastline at Wainwright and other Alaska towns. As the ice melts, the ground can slump and erode. Ming Xiao
Permafrost is soil or rock that remains at or below 32°F (0°C) for at least two consecutive years. Where it contains abundant ground ice, thawing fundamentally alters the ground’s ability to bear loads. As ice melts and water drains away, the surface can subside and the added weight of infrastructure can accelerate further collapse.
Researchers operate a drone-borne geophysical system over Arctic tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, in August 2024. Suspending the sensor below the aircraft enables them to survey wet and thaw-sensitive ground that is hard to reach. Emma Kappel
Local variability makes prediction hard
Thaw and damage are highly heterogeneous: conditions can differ dramatically over distances of a single city block because of variations in ice content, moisture and local drainage. Human-built features also modify snow accumulation and run-off, which influences thaw patterns. Coastal processes complicate the picture: wave action can erode bluff bases while thaw weakens the frozen ground above, producing sudden slumps and collapses, as observed in Utqiaġvik in 2023–24.
Polygon shapes where the ground has sunk are clear signs of permafrost thaw. This landscape of ponds, wet areas and polygonal ground near the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, on Aug. 11, 2026, shows how surface and subsurface conditions can vary over short distances. Ming Xiao
Why new tools are needed
Much of the critical information for siting and designing infrastructure lies underground. Dense grids of boreholes provide direct data but are expensive, disruptive and logistically difficult across wetlands and fragile tundra. Geophysical imaging and remote sensing can fill those gaps cost-effectively and with better spatial coverage.
Electrical resistivity tomography along the Arctic coast in Wainwright, Alaska, on Aug. 13, 2026. Ground-based measurements provide detailed comparison data for airborne geophysical surveys. Ming Xiao
How drones and VLF-EM help
One promising technique is very low frequency electromagnetic surveying (VLF-EM). VLF-EM uses electromagnetic waves from distant transmitters and measures how the subsurface responds. Because the sensors can be suspended beneath a drone, teams can survey wet, thaw-sensitive ground that would be hard to reach on foot or by vehicle.
A cross-section of ground from the electrical resistivity tomography survey lines shows variations in the permafrost below. Red color means the ground material doesn't conduct electricity easily and is likely to be ice. Xueyang Wang, et al., 2026
Electromagnetic methods are especially useful along coasts because saline, unfrozen water conducts electricity much better than ice-rich frozen ground. These contrasts help identify areas where thaw or saline intrusion has altered subsurface conditions. While VLF-EM does not produce a perfect depth map and has some uncertainty in precise layering, it reliably flags where more detailed investigation is needed.
From sensors to forecasts: digital twins
Mapping today’s conditions is necessary but not sufficient: infrastructure often remains in service for decades, so planners need forecasts. Our research combines field sensors (for example, fiber-optic temperature and seismic arrays), airborne geophysics, and computer models to build digital twins—dynamic computational replicas of real-world sites.
At a road embankment in Utqiaġvik we instrumented a roughly 100-meter section with fiber-optic cables and other sensors. Using those observations, we updated a model that blends heat-transfer physics with machine learning. The digital twin adapts as new data arrive, improving predictions of permafrost temperature evolution, ground settlement and foundation bearing capacity.
What models show for Alaska’s Arctic coast
In a 2026 regional study of Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (the area that includes Prudhoe Bay and much of the state’s oil infrastructure), we projected infrastructure risk under different greenhouse-gas pathways. Under a high-emissions scenario, the share of infrastructure at risk remains under 10% around mid-century, then rises quickly between the 2060s and 2080s. By the 2090s, roughly 80% of buildings, 60% of roads and 90% of pipelines in the region could be vulnerable to damage from ground subsidence.
Putting science into practice
Our goal is practical: use drone-borne geophysics to map vulnerable ground, deploy sensors to monitor ongoing change, and run digital twins to forecast consequences for infrastructure. These tools give communities and engineers the evidence they need to prioritize monitoring, reinforcement, repair, relocation or other adaptation measures.
Permafrost thaw is often described as an environmental problem, but in the Arctic it is also an engineering crisis. The better we can observe what is happening beneath the surface and anticipate what comes next, the more time communities will have to act to reduce damage and protect lives, livelihoods and services.
Reported by Ming Xiao, Penn State. Research funding acknowledged from the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Defense.
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