Ten years after the Paris Agreement, global datasets show accelerating warming: 2025 ranks among the three warmest years on record. The Global Carbon Budget projects fossil‑fuel CO₂ emissions at a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, while atmospheric CO₂ is roughly 52% above pre‑industrial levels. Scientists warn only about 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ remain to keep warming to 1.5°C. The Arctic, oceans and sea levels are also reaching new thresholds.
Climate Crossroads: 10 Years After Paris — 2025 Among The Three Warmest Years, Emissions Still Climbing
A man walks at his garden near the coal-fired power plant in Obilic, Kosovo November 13, 2025. REUTERS/Valdrin Xhemaj/File Photo
Correction: Wording has been clarified to state the Global Carbon Budget report contains projections for 2025 (not 2027).
Ten years after the Paris Agreement took effect, multiple new climate datasets show the planet heating faster, with 2025 ranking among the three warmest years on record. Scientists report record greenhouse gas concentrations, accelerating ocean warming and continued sea‑level rise — all warning signs that current policies are insufficient to meet Paris targets.
EMISSIONS: A WIDENING GAP
The World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch reports atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide at record highs, linked by scientists to the temperature surge seen from 2023 through 2025.
The Global Carbon Budget — produced by an international team of more than 130 scientists — projects global fossil‑fuel CO2 emissions will reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, a rise of about 1.1% that pushes atmospheric CO2 to roughly 52% above pre‑industrial levels. The report notes this increase is driven by growing coal, oil and gas use, even as renewables expand rapidly.
Researchers estimate there is only about 170 billion tonnes of CO2 left in the budget if the world is to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre‑industrial averages — roughly four years at current emission rates. Regionally, emissions are projected to rise in China, India, the United States and the European Union in 2025, while Japan is expected to see a decline.
TEMPERATURES: A DECADE OF ACCELERATION
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies reported 2025 surface temperatures at about 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 average, effectively tying with 2023 as one of the warmest years on record. The World Meteorological Organization's consolidated dataset places 2025 at approximately 1.44°C above pre‑industrial levels, ranking it among the top three warmest years in 176 years of records.
ARCTIC: RAPID LOSS OF SEA ICE
NOAA's 2025 Arctic Report Card confirmed that the period from October 2024 through September 2025 was the warmest since 1900, with the Arctic warming at more than twice the global average. Sea‑ice extent reached the lowest winter maximum on record in March 2025 — about 14.47 million square kilometres, according to the U.S. National Ice Center.
OCEANS: HEAT BUILDUP AND RISING SEAS
In 2025 the oceans absorbed record amounts of heat, setting a new global high for upper‑ocean heat content, researchers at NOAA and Berkeley Earth reported. As oceans warm, thermal expansion and melting ice contribute to ongoing sea‑level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a further rise of roughly 0.20–0.29 metres by 2050 relative to 1995–2014.
WHAT THIS MEANS
Taken together, the datasets portray a clear message: the world has accelerated into a warmer state over the past decade, and current emission trends are not aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Substantive, near‑term cuts in fossil‑fuel emissions, rapid deployment of renewables, and stronger policy commitments are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
Reporting by Canan Sevgili, Vera Dvorakova, Lucie Barbier and Alessandro Parodi; Edited by Simon Jessop and David Holmes.
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