On the Moonshots podcast, Elon Musk predicted that robots could be performing and even outnumbering surgeons within a few years, with Tesla’s Optimus humanoids as a likely candidate. He argued that pervasive automation could make traditional retirement saving irrelevant and suggested AI may unlock major lifespan gains. Musk also predicted AGI soon and dramatic increases in machine intelligence, while experts like Bill Gates caution that timelines remain uncertain.
Musk Predicts Robot Surgeons Within Three Years, Longer Lifespans and an End To Retirement Saving
Robot surgeons, jobless immortal humans, and worthless pensions: Here's Elon Musk’s vision for the future of work
Elon Musk told the Moonshots podcast with Peter Diamandis that robots could be performing — and eventually outnumbering — human surgeons within a few years, and that dramatic advances in automation and AI will reshape how people work, age and plan for retirement.
Musk’s Timeline For Robot Surgeons
Everyone will have access to medical care that is better than what the President receives right now, Musk said on the podcast.
He argued that a shortage of doctors, the long training pipeline and human limitations make medicine an attractive target for automation. Musk suggested Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots could be a solution and predicted that by 2030 there may be more Optimus robots capable of excellent surgical work than there are human surgeons worldwide. He acknowledged Tesla’s previous production setbacks for Optimus but portrayed those as part of an aggressive roadmap rather than a fatal flaw.
On Money, Work and Retirement
Musk also claimed that if automation drives the cost of housing, food, manufacturing and services toward near zero, traditional wages and savings may lose their central role. "You won't need to save for retirement," he said, suggesting that universal basic income or similar social policies would be required to support people displaced by automation — though he did not lay out specific policy steps in this interview.
Longevity And Artificial Intelligence
Musk joined other tech figures in predicting major lifespan gains from AI-driven advances. He described death as a form of biological "programming" that could be altered, calling longevity or "semi-immortality" a solvable problem. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested lifespans could double within a decade, and Blueprint founder Bryan Johnson has publicly set even more ambitious goals for human life extension.
AGI And Rapid Intelligence Growth
Musk said he is confident that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will arrive soon and predicted that by 2030 AI could exceed the combined intelligence of all humans. He warned that many inside the AI industry underestimate the pace of improvement, pointing to what he called increases in "intelligence density per gigabyte" and rapid gains in computing capacity and investment.
Caveats From Other Experts
Not everyone agrees on the timelines. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and other experts acknowledge that AI is advancing faster than expected but caution that precise predictions about when jobs will be replaced or AGI will arrive remain highly uncertain. Practical AI tools such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini have already reduced time spent on administrative work; one survey last year estimated AI could save workers up to 12 hours per week by 2029, which Musk described as only a prelude to much larger changes.
Implications And Policy Questions
Musk’s vision raises profound economic and ethical questions: how to provide income, healthcare and housing if work is heavily automated; how to regulate and validate robot-performed medicine; and how to manage the societal impacts of radically extended lifespans. He offered bold predictions but few concrete policy proposals in the interview.
Originally featured on Fortune.com; interview on the Moonshots podcast with Peter Diamandis.
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