AI abundance is the idea that advanced AI could dramatically increase production and reduce routine work, potentially making societies far wealthier. Anton Korinek compares the potential scale of this change to the Industrial Revolution and notes the importance of distribution: if labor becomes less valuable, new policies will be needed to ensure people still have secure incomes. Policy options under discussion include Universal Basic Income, compute allotments, and job guarantees; the central question is whether society will share automation’s gains rather than leaving workers behind.
AI Abundance: Could Automation Free Us From Work — And How Would We Share The Gains?
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Few topics spark more anxiety about artificial intelligence than the fear that machines will replace human jobs. Yet some economists and technologists argue that widespread automation could produce an era of "AI abundance" — far more goods and services, less routine work, and more time for people to pursue creative, civic, or leisure activities.
What Is AI Abundance?
Anton Korinek, an economics professor at the University of Virginia and one of Vox’s 2024 Future Perfect 50, describes AI abundance as the possibility that AI and robots could generate an order-of-magnitude increase in production and wealth. As he told Vox’s podcast Explain It to Me, "AI abundance essentially carries the notion that we could all be so much wealthier than we can even imagine today… AI and robots will be able to produce a lot more goods and services than in today’s economy, and would make us an order of magnitude wealthier and better off."
Historical Parallel: The Industrial Revolution
Korinek compares the scale of change to the Industrial Revolution. Before that era, land was the primary productive input. New reproducible machines — from textile looms to steam engines and electricity — removed land as the main bottleneck and allowed production to scale dramatically. That shift helps explain why people in advanced economies are roughly 20 times richer on average than before the Industrial Revolution.
What That Meant For Workers
The rise of machines was disruptive and often devastating for individual workers. Skilled artisans who once made a living from handcrafts lost jobs almost overnight when industrial machines could produce at much lower cost. Over generations, though, many societies saw broad improvements in living standards as cheap industrial goods and higher incomes spread — but only where social protections and policies helped manage the transition.
How Today's Automation Differs
Korinek frames automation in two stages: first, machines replaced physical strength; since the mid-20th century, computers automated routine cognitive tasks. Contemporary AI systems are pushing into ever more complex cognitive work, raising the key question: how far can automation go, and what will remain for human labor?
Where Is the Bottleneck Now?
Today the economy’s most valuable resource is human capital — skills, creativity, and labor capacity. If AI allows us to deploy additional "AI workers" with the push of a button, the economy could expand dramatically. But the central challenge is distribution: if labor becomes less valuable while overall abundance rises, how will people secure food, housing, and health care?
"We are going to need a new system of income distribution," Korinek warns. "For example, Universal Basic Income, compute allotments, job guarantees — there’s a whole range of options out there."
Policy Options and Stakes
Policymakers and scholars are discussing several approaches to ensure gains from automation are shared:
- Universal Basic Income (UBI) — regular cash transfers to all citizens.
- Compute Allotments — allocating computational resources to individuals that they can use or monetize.
- Job Guarantees — public employment programs that ensure meaningful work and income.
Korinek emphasizes the moral and political imperative: if automation produces greater abundance, failing to distribute its benefits broadly would be a major societal failure.
Where To Learn More
This piece is adapted from an episode of Vox’s podcast Explain It to Me. Listen to the full conversation with Anton Korinek on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get podcasts. For questions, email askvox@vox.com or call 1-800-618-8545.
This reporting was supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures; Vox retained full editorial discretion.
