The World Weather Attribution team at Imperial College London analyzed the 10 deadliest weather disasters since 2004 and found a consistent climate-change "fingerprint" on them, concluding these events caused more than 570,000 deaths in total. The study highlights Somalia’s 2011 drought (≈250,000 deaths), the 2022 European heatwaves (≈53,000 deaths) and France’s 2015 heatwave (made about twice as likely by warming). Researchers compared today’s climate with a counterfactual world without industrial-era emissions and urge faster emissions cuts, renewables and electrification to reduce future suffering.
Scientists Identify a Clear Climate-Change 'Fingerprint' on the 10 Deadliest Weather Disasters Since 2004
A new analysis from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College London finds a consistent "fingerprint of climate change" across the 10 deadliest extreme weather events of the past two decades, reporting that human-driven warming made several disasters more likely, more intense or deadlier.
Key Findings
WWA researchers examined the 10 deadliest weather disasters recorded in the International Disaster Database since 2004 and concluded those events together were responsible for more than 570,000 deaths. The single deadliest event in the study was a 2011 drought in Somalia, estimated to have caused roughly 250,000 fatalities; WWA says climate change influenced the unusually low rainfall that made the drought more likely and more severe.
The study also linked warming to higher probability or greater severity in other catastrophic events, including the 2022 European heatwaves (tied to roughly 53,000 deaths) and France’s 2015 heatwave (which caused more than 3,000 deaths and was made about twice as likely by the planet’s warming). Major floods and tropical cyclones — notably India (2013), Bangladesh (2007), Myanmar (2008) and the Philippines (2013) — were also found to be intensified by human-induced warming.
How The Analysis Was Done
Dr. Friederike Otto (WWA co-founder and lead) and Dutch climatologist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh compared the likelihood of each event in today’s climate with a modeled "counterfactual" world that excludes post‑Industrial Revolution emissions — effectively estimating how the events would behave on a planet without billions of tonnes of extra atmospheric carbon since industrialization.
"This study should be an eye-opener for political leaders hanging on to fossil fuels that heat the planet and destroy lives," said Dr. Otto. "If we keep burning oil, gas and coal, the suffering will continue."
Roop Singh of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, which supports WWA’s work, added that "with every fraction of a degree of warming, we will see more record-breaking events that push countries to the brink, no matter how prepared they are." These findings were reported by the BBC.
What This Means And What To Do
The study reinforces the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent, intense and deadly. Researchers and aid organizations emphasize that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions — chiefly by transitioning from coal, oil and gas to renewable energy, and by electrifying transport and buildings — are critical to reduce future harm. Local measures to boost resilience, early warning systems and disaster preparedness also remain essential to save lives.
Source: World Weather Attribution analysis, reporting by the BBC.
