Iraq remains in fragile coalition talks more than a month after elections as Washington pushes Baghdad to exclude and dismantle Iran-backed militias that have increased their parliamentary presence. Key groups such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq won significant seats, making exclusion politically difficult; one likely compromise is to bar militias from key ministries while allowing parliamentary roles. Iraqi leaders must weigh attracting foreign investment and US partnership against domestic ties to Tehran and growing security concerns as American forces shrink.
Iraq's Coalition Talks Under US Pressure: Balancing Iran-Backed Militias, Investment and Security
A sense of normalcy has returned to Iraq after decades of turmoil, but much hangs on delicate colaition negotiations following November's elections (AHMAD AL-RUBAYE)(AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/AFP)
More than a month after parliamentary elections, Iraq's political leaders remain locked in coalition talks while Washington presses Baghdad to exclude and dismantle Iran-backed militias that have gained parliamentary influence.
Regional Shifts and a Difficult Balancing Act
Against the backdrop of shifting alliances across the Middle East, Iraqi leaders must navigate a fraught position between the United States and Iran. Several armed groups with ties to Tehran have increased their presence in parliament and are part of the Coordination Framework, the Shiite alliance that holds a majority in the new chamber.
What Washington Wants
The United States — which has maintained strong influence in Iraq since the 2003 invasion — is insisting that the next government exclude Iran-backed armed factions and take steps to dismantle or disarm them, Iraqi officials and diplomats told AFP. A State Department spokesperson said, on condition of anonymity, that "Iraqi leaders well know what is and is not compatible with a strong US-Iraq partnership" and that Washington "will continue to speak plainly to the urgency of dismantling Iran-backed militias."
In tweets, the US special envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, warned Iraqi leaders they stand at a "crossroads," saying their choice will determine whether Iraq reclaims a stable, respected role in the region or faces "economic deterioration, political confusion, and international isolation."
Which Groups Are Targeted?
Washington has designated several militias as "terrorist organisations." Many emerged from the Hashed al-Shaabi, a former paramilitary umbrella now formally incorporated into Iraq's security architecture. These groups are aligned with Tehran's so-called "axis of resistance," have called for US troop withdrawal and have carried out attacks on American forces deployed as part of the anti-jihadist coalition.
Notable groups named in reporting include:
- Asaib Ahl al-Haq — led by Qais al-Khazali, won 27 parliamentary seats in the latest vote, complicating efforts to bar it from government influence.
- Kataeb Hezbollah — a powerful militia backing a small parliamentary bloc (reported six seats).
- Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kataeb Imam Ali, Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, and the al-Nujaba movement (the latter not contesting elections).
Many of these actors now wield political and financial clout. One proposed compromise is to allow them parliamentary representation but bar them from controlling key ministries — a model seen in previous governments.
What's At Stake for Iraq
Iraq's fragile economic recovery and appetite for foreign investment are central to the debate. Leaders hope to attract major international companies and secure partnerships with US firms, while also managing domestic political realities and ties to Iran. Some militia leaders, including Qais al-Khazali, have publicly suggested that economic interests could justify welcoming foreign investment despite their opposition to a US military presence.
Since the Israel–Hamas war began in October 2023, Iraq has largely avoided direct regional escalation, although militias launched attacks on US forces and attempted strikes on Israel that were largely unsuccessful. The US responded with strikes that helped curb further attacks. Multiple sources say Washington has warned Baghdad that strikes or sanctions against designated militias remain possible, and as American troop numbers decline, security fears in Iraq are rising.
Possible Outcomes and Implications
Negotiations could produce a government that:
- Excludes blacklisted militias from ministerial portfolios while tolerating their parliamentary presence;
- Attempts to integrate and disarm certain factions under state institutions; or
- Faces potential international pressure, sanctions, or limited military action if it refuses US demands.
How Iraqi leaders resolve this tug-of-war will shape the country's economic prospects, regional alignment and security outlook in the months ahead.
Reporting: rh-ak/dc
