Virginia’s November results show that energized Democratic turnout — especially in diverse suburban districts — helped Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger outperform 2024 margins in several Republican-leaning areas. Four Northern Virginia districts swung double digits toward Democrats, and the 11th shifted more than 13 points. These trends matter for redistricting: Democrats hope to use the new data to redraw maps and try to flip at least two GOP-held House seats in 2026.
Virginia’s November Vote Could Reshape The Battle For Control Of The House
Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger at her election night watch party at the Greater Richmond Convention Center on Nov. 4. (Alex Wong / Getty Images)
Virginia’s November gubernatorial results offer an early look at how turnout and demographic shifts can alter the congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger’s strong showing in several Republican-leaning areas underscores the party’s potential to contest — and flip — vulnerable seats if it sustains high turnout among diverse communities.
What Happened
Spanberger won every district Democrats already held and carried two Republican-held districts, improving on Democratic 2024 margins most sharply in the state’s most diverse congressional districts. An NBC News Decision Desk analysis of returns by congressional district found the biggest swings toward Democrats in Northern Virginia, where four districts (the 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th) moved by double digits compared with the 2024 presidential results.
Turnout: A Key Factor
Turnout differences help explain the shifts. In many districts Democrats came much closer to their raw 2024 vote totals than Republicans did. For example, about 202,000 Virginians voted for Spanberger in the 1st District — roughly an 11% drop from Kamala Harris’ 2024 total — while roughly 193,000 voted for Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, a 23% decline from Donald Trump’s 2024 turnout. That asymmetric recovery gave Spanberger a distinct advantage in several competitive areas.
Demographics And Where Gains Were Largest
Democratic gains were strongest in diverse districts. The 11th District shifted more than 13 points toward Democrats and is the state’s most Asian district (over 20% Asian), with Hispanic residents around 15% and Black residents about 9%. The 7th, 8th and 10th districts also have significant Black, Asian and Hispanic populations; the 7th is roughly 40% Black or Hispanic. These patterns suggest Democratic improvements were concentrated where the electorate is more racially and ethnically mixed.
Redistricting Implications
Virginia’s congressional delegation is narrowly divided — six Democrats and five Republicans — and state Democrats hope to redraw congressional lines to try to flip at least two GOP-held seats. The November results give Virginia Democrats fresh data to inform any new map, unlike some states that adopted new maps before recent elections provided updated returns. But redistricting carries risk: drawing maps too aggressively to create flippable seats can expose other districts if political winds shift.
What Comes Next
These gains do not guarantee long-term change. The electorate in a midterm year will differ from a gubernatorial turnout profile, and national dynamics will matter. Still, Virginia’s results show how an energized Democratic turnout — concentrated in diverse suburbs and exurbs — could narrow Republican margins in key districts and change the calculus for House control next year.
Bottom line: High Democratic turnout in diverse Virginia districts produced notable swings in November, offering a blueprint for competitive House contests and critical intel for redistricting debates ahead of 2026.
