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Mid‑Decade Redistricting Surge: GOP and Democrats Clash Over Maps That Could Decide the 2026 House

10:48 PM, 12/05/2025
Mid‑Decade Redistricting Surge: GOP and Democrats Clash Over Maps That Could Decide the 2026 House

Republicans, backed by President Trump, are pursuing an unprecedented mid‑decade redistricting campaign to shore up a slim House majority before the 2026 midterms. Democrats have mounted countermeasures and legal challenges in multiple states. Key developments include Indiana’s House approving a map that targets two Democrats, the Supreme Court allowing a contested Texas map to be used, and a federal lawsuit from the Trump administration over California’s new map. Pending court rulings and possible changes to the Voting Rights Act could widen opportunities for partisan mapmaking.

Overview

Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, have mounted an aggressive, mid‑decade effort to redraw congressional maps in multiple states with the explicit goal of protecting the party’s narrow House majority ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democrats have responded with their own mapmaking and legal challenges, producing a nationwide wave of political and courtroom battles that could shape control of Congress.

Recent Developments

Indiana: The state House approved a new congressional map designed to put the state’s two Democratic members at risk. The measure now moves to the state Senate, where the chamber’s leader has said it lacks the necessary Republican votes despite public pressure from President Trump and Governor Mike Braun.

Texas: The U.S. Supreme Court stayed a lower‑court ruling that had blocked Texas from using a contested map. The stay allows Texas to use the map in the upcoming midterms; proponents say it could create as many as five additional Republican‑leaning seats.

California: The Trump administration filed suit challenging a newly approved congressional map drawn by Democrats. California’s map, which voters approved overwhelmingly, is designed in part to counteract potential Republican gains elsewhere by creating opportunities for Democrats to flip as many as five Republican‑held seats.

Why This Matters

Redistricting — the process of redrawing congressional district boundaries — normally follows the decennial census. But with the House margin unusually thin, mapmaking has become a central tactic in shaping the 2026 contests. The rules and processes vary by state: in some, legislators can redraw maps quickly if they control government; in others, changes require constitutional amendments or voter referendums.

Overall, Republicans currently have more opportunities to gain seats from new maps because they control more state governments. Many Democratic-leaning states previously transferred mapmaking authority to independent commissions; some of those moves are now being contested or reversed.

Legal Stakes and the Road Ahead

So far in 2025 the scale of politically motivated, mid‑decade redistricting is unprecedented. Numerous legal challenges are pending across states seeking to overturn maps or block new ones. The Supreme Court may also be poised to revisit key provisions of the Voting Rights Act — a decision that experts warn could open the door to even more aggressive partisan maps.

This story will continue to evolve as courts rule and state legislatures act. — Reporting contributions from Molly English, Arit John and Dianne Gallagher.

Photo Illustration credit: Alberto Mier/CNN/@SenatorBerger via X/California and Missouri state legislatures

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