Van Epps Holds Nashville-Area House Seat as Democrats Tout Strong Showing — Five Takeaways

Republican Matt Van Epps won a special election Tuesday to fill a Nashville-area U.S. House seat, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine percentage points in a district President Trump carried by about 22 points in 2024. While the GOP retained the seat, the much narrower margin than expected drew attention from both parties as an indicator of how competitive some races could be heading into the 2026 midterms.

Five takeaways from the Tennessee special election

1) A closer-than-expected result put Republican strategists on edge

Van Epps’s victory spared Republicans from losing a seat that would have further narrowed their slim House majority. The outcome was watched closely because a loss would have been politically damaging for former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, both of whom campaigned to support the GOP candidate in the final days.

2) Celebration — and concern — within the GOP

President Trump publicly celebrated Van Epps’s win. At the same time, some Republican operatives expressed alarm about the smaller-than-anticipated margin. Matt Whitlock, a former adviser to the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, warned that a leftward shift of similar size across districts could translate into major seat losses for the party.

“This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we’ve seen yet for Republicans,” Whitlock wrote on X.

3) Democrats see momentum despite coming up short

Democrats highlighted Behn’s performance as evidence of growing strength in contested areas. Behn outperformed the district’s 2024 baseline by about 13 points and exceeded Vice President Kamala Harris’s performance in Davidson County by roughly 20 points, figures Democrats say show their messaging — particularly on affordability — resonating even in Trump-leaning districts.

“What happened tonight in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes,” said DNC Chair Ken Martin.

4) Familiar voting patterns and strong turnout

Initial returns, which are dominated by early and absentee ballots, favored Behn — underscoring Democrats’ continued advantage in early voting — but Van Epps closed the gap with stronger Election Day performance. Total turnout was unusually high for an off-cycle special election: about 180,000 voters, nearly matching the district’s 2022 midterm participation.

5) A failed attempt to boost an independent spoiler

A Democratic-aligned super PAC ran ads to raise the profile of independent candidate Jonathan Thorp, but Thorp received only about 0.5% of the vote and did not materially affect the outcome. The tactic of supporting third-party or long-shot candidates to siphon votes from opponents has been used before and may be tried again.

What’s next

Both parties will now turn their focus to the 2026 midterms. Democrats say recent overperformances and several favorable redistricting developments have energized their efforts, while Republicans are looking to potential map changes in states such as Indiana and Florida and awaiting a Supreme Court decision on a Texas map that could affect several seats. Both sides are recalibrating strategies after the Tennessee result as they prepare for a high-stakes election year.