The delayed BLS release for November and a partial October update is expected to show a cooling U.S. labor market, with November payrolls forecast up around 50,000 after a probable October decline tied to federal buyouts. A 43-day shutdown prevented October household data collection, complicating interpretation. Job gains are likely to remain narrow — concentrated in healthcare and leisure — while wage growth moderates and the Fed flags downside risks.
Delayed U.S. Jobs Report Points To Cooling Labor Market, November Payrolls Seen Up ~50,000
A "now hiring" sign is displayed on a local business after, U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in July, in Encinitas, California, U.S. August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - A delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics report due Tuesday is expected to show a cooling U.S. labor market, with economists forecasting about a 50,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls in November after a likely October decline tied to federal cost-cutting.
Key Details
The Labor Department's BLS will release the postponed November employment report together with a partial October update. The October release will not include household-survey measures such as the unemployment rate because a 43-day federal government shutdown prevented the collection of household data.
Why October Is Uncertain
Economists say October's payroll declines likely reflect more than 150,000 federal employees who accepted deferred buyouts as part of efforts to trim the government workforce; many left payrolls at the end of September. Furloughed workers from the shutdown are not expected to appear as payroll losses because they were paid retroactively when the government reopened.
Labor Market Outlook
Analysts caution the combined release will be difficult to interpret, but most see the labor market remaining on a path of "stall-speed" hiring with a gradual rise in unemployment. Job gains are expected to remain narrow and concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, while professional and business services, transportation, wholesale trade, retail and manufacturing may have shed jobs.
"We have a situation where corporations don't want to hire more people, but there is no wholesale firing that you would see like in a recession," said Brian Bethune, economics professor at Boston College. "When large businesses get hit with a shock that they didn't anticipate, one contingency plan is to stop hiring — that's the easiest thing to do."
Wages, Unemployment And The Fed
Slowing payroll growth is easing wage pressures: average hourly earnings are estimated to have risen 3.6% year-on-year through November, down from a 3.8% gain in September. Economists forecast the unemployment rate at roughly 4.4% in November, although the true October rate will never be known because the household survey was not conducted.
Federal Reserve officials last week cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range but signaled they do not expect further near-term cuts until clearer labor market and inflation signals emerge. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of downside risks after a preliminary benchmark revision suggested substantially fewer jobs were created than previously reported.
Benchmarks And What To Watch
A September preliminary benchmark revision indicated roughly 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than initially reported — about 76,000 fewer jobs per month. The BLS will publish the final payroll benchmark revision in February alongside the January employment report.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
