U.S. Job Openings Hold Near 7.7 Million in October as Layoffs Rise and Quits Fall

The Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings edged in at 7.67 million in October, essentially unchanged from September’s 7.66 million as the labor market shows signs of cooling amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Key Labor Market Signals

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), delayed by the recent federal shutdown, also showed layoffs rose to nearly 1.9 million — the highest level since January 2023 — while quits, a common measure of worker confidence, fell in October. The mix of rising layoffs and fewer voluntary departures points to weakening labor-market strength.

Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon: “Businesses seeking to control labor costs will have to pivot to active layoffs, lifting unemployment, rather than rely on natural attrition.”

Where Openings Stand

Openings have declined steadily from a peak of 12.1 million in March 2022, when hiring surged as the economy recovered from COVID-19 lockdowns. Economists attribute part of the slowdown to the lingering effects of the high interest rates the Federal Reserve put in place in 2022–2023 to tame inflation.

Policy, Prices and Reporting Disruptions

The broader economy faces additional complications from recent policy changes, including the administration’s move toward higher tariffs on many imports, which analysts say has added to price pressures by passing higher import costs through to consumers.

Federal Reserve officials are meeting this week amid a difficult policy trade-off: inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target — in part because of higher import costs — yet a softer jobs picture increases pressure to cut the central bank’s benchmark rate. Markets and observers expect another rate cut this year, though some policymakers may dissent.

The 43-day federal shutdown disrupted the timing and publication of economic data. The October JOLTS release was delayed and combined with September’s figures because data collectors were furloughed. As a result, September’s separate report was not released; the combined release showed a sizable rise in openings from August’s 7.23 million total.

Near-Term Outlook

The Labor Department plans to publish November hiring and unemployment figures next Tuesday, 11 days later than scheduled. Officials did not release an October unemployment rate because they could not calculate it during the shutdown; some October job measures — including payroll gains — will be released alongside the full November report.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast employers added fewer than 38,000 jobs in November and that the unemployment rate rose to about 4.5% from September’s 4.4%. While still low by historical standards, such a rise would be the highest jobless rate in nearly four years.