Congress left for the holiday recess without voting to extend enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies that are set to expire on January 1, potentially raising costs for up to 22 million people. Dozens of centrist Republicans defied party leadership to force a House vote, setting up further negotiations when lawmakers return the first week of January. Senate centrists and leaders signaled a possible path forward if Democrats accept GOP reforms, while Speaker Mike Johnson defended the decision to recess. The dispute leaves millions at risk of higher premiums and forces urgent talks in the new year.
Congress Recesses as Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies Near Expiration — 22 Million at Risk
The US Capitol on Thursday. - Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Congressional Republicans left Washington for the holiday recess without resolving the imminent expiration of enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies, a move that could sharply increase costs for as many as 22 million people starting January 1.
What happened: House leaders allowed members to adjourn without voting on a bipartisan extension of the Covid-era premium assistance, prompting frustration from centrist Republicans who pressed for action. Instead, the House passed a separate GOP-backed health-care bill and an energy permitting package that do not directly extend the enhanced subsidies set to lapse at the end of the year.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Thursday. - Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.): "Here we are without a deal enacted, with the subsidies about to expire. I think it’s totally unacceptable. It’s a failure of leadership, honestly, on both sides."
The enhanced subsidies, first enacted during the pandemic, lower monthly premiums for many Marketplace enrollees and help make coverage more affordable. If they expire, some enrollees could face dramatic premium increases and others may decide to drop coverage altogether. Lawmakers and independent analysts have estimated that the lapse could affect up to 22 million people enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans.
Political Divide And Congressional Dynamics
Republicans are divided. Dozens of GOP centrists in the House and Senate urged leadership to adopt a bipartisan fix; some House Republicans defied Speaker Mike Johnson by signing onto a Democratic-led effort to force a vote on an extension. That maneuver sets up a likely showdown when lawmakers return the first week of January — potentially after millions already begin to feel the financial impact.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson talks with reporters on Thursday. - Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images
Speaker Mike Johnson: He defended the decision to recess, saying delaying the break would have violated House rules and rejecting calls to cancel the recess. Asked whether he worried about swing-district Republicans losing seats over the issue, Johnson replied "absolutely not."
Across the Capitol, Senate centrists have been quietly strategizing about how to use any House-passed measure as leverage to craft a compromise. Senate leaders including Sen. John Thune suggested a path could exist to extend the subsidies in the new year if Democrats accept certain GOP-backed reforms. Sen. Josh Hawley called the House bill "an opportunity to work on something," while acknowledging it would not pass the Senate unchanged.
What The GOP Bill Does — And What It Doesn’t
The Republican health bill the House approved aims to lower costs over time by expanding association health plans — allowing small businesses and self-employed workers to band together to buy coverage — and restoring federal funding for cost-sharing reductions that help lower-income enrollees with deductibles and out-of-pocket costs. However, leaders acknowledge the measure does not directly prevent the immediate premium increases many experts expect in 2026 if the enhanced subsidies end.
Next Steps And What To Watch
Lawmakers are expected to debate and vote on subsidy-related measures the first week of January. Centrist Republicans and Democrats say they will keep pressing for a bipartisan compromise, even if it means negotiating after the subsidies formally expire. Observers will watch whether Senate negotiators can use any House action as a vehicle for a broader deal and whether both parties agree to trade-offs that could extend relief.
Bottom line: Millions of Americans face potential sticker shock in the new year unless Congress acts. The dispute highlights a growing intra-party split among Republicans and sets up high-stakes negotiations early next year.
