U.S. Military Buildup Near Venezuela Halts Repatriation Flights — Experts Warn Migration Could Worsen

Venezuelan authorities say recent U.S. military activity near their borders has led Caracas to suspend twice-weekly charter flights that had been returning unauthorized migrants from the United States under the Plan Vuelta a la Patria (Return to the Homeland Plan).

In an official statement, Venezuela's foreign ministry said Washington's actions "unilaterally suspended the Venezuelan migrant flights that were being carried out regularly and weekly as part of the repatriation of Venezuelans through the Plan Vuelta a la Patria." Venezuelan officials say nearly 14,000 nationals were flown home on the program in recent months.

President Donald Trump warned pilots that the airspace "above and surrounding" Venezuela should be "closed in its entirety" as his administration considered possible strikes on targets in and around Caracas. U.S. operations so far have focused on alleged narcotics traffickers operating in the Caribbean near Venezuela, but officials have signaled that strikes could expand to land-based targets.

Dozens of U.S. bombers have been deployed to the region, and the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is also on station, underscoring the scale of the military buildup. The actions have coincided with a separate U.S. policy move: plans to end temporary protected status (TPS) for roughly 600,000 Venezuelans living in the United States.

President Trump confirmed he recently spoke by phone with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, describing the call as neither clearly "well" nor "badly" conducted. Reports indicate the U.S. pressed Maduro to step down, while Maduro reportedly sought guarantees such as global amnesty and retention of military control.

Critics and analysts warn of unintended consequences

Commentators opposed to military pressure and restraint-minded policy analysts have warned that escalatory measures aimed at regime change could backfire and increase migration rather than resolve the crisis.

"Escalatory dynamics could trigger regional instability and hostility, with migration flows among the most predictable consequences," wrote Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri of the Stimson Center. "Absent a credible transition structure inside Venezuela, external pressure is far more likely to deepen chaos — driving more Venezuelans to flee — than to produce political change."

Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute added that "U.S. militarized pressure on Venezuela is far more likely to worsen instability than to produce meaningful political change," citing historical cases where coercion produced unpredictable outcomes and mass displacement. George A. López of the Quincy Institute warned that escalation "risks accelerating the very migration pressures Washington is trying to contain."

The suspension of the repatriation flights puts a spotlight on the broader humanitarian and diplomatic consequences of military escalation, raising urgent questions about how to manage migration flows, protect civilians and pursue political objectives without deepening the regional crisis.