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Africa’s Forests Have Become Net Carbon Emitters — New Study Warns

08:23 PM, 12/01/2025
Africa’s Forests Have Become Net Carbon Emitters — New Study Warns

A new study using satellite data and machine learning finds that since about 2010 Africa’s forests have shifted from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Between 2010 and 2017 they lost roughly 106 million tonnes of biomass per year, with the worst losses in the DRC, Madagascar and parts of West Africa. Authors call for urgent action and far greater funding for initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which has gathered about $6.5 billion of a $100 billion goal.

New research finds a dramatic reversal: since about 2010, Africa’s forests have shifted from absorbing carbon to releasing it, undermining one of the planet’s key natural defenses against climate change.

Scientists using satellite observations and machine-learning analysis tracked more than a decade of change in carbon stored in trees and woody vegetation. Their findings show that between 2010 and 2017 African forests lost roughly 106 million tonnes of biomass per year — approximately the weight of 106 million cars. The most affected areas include tropical moist broadleaf forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Madagascar and parts of West Africa.

Researchers found that Africa was still gaining carbon between 2007 and 2010, but widespread deforestation and degradation since then have reversed the trend so the continent now contributes a net release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The study identifies human drivers — agricultural clearing, expanding infrastructure, mining — as the primary causes, with rising global temperatures from fossil-fuel burning further weakening ecosystem resilience.

What the scientists did

The study combined satellite-derived biomass data with machine-learning techniques to measure changes in woody carbon stocks across African forests over more than a decade. This approach allows mapping of both large-scale deforestation and more gradual degradation.

Implications and policy responses

The authors warn that continued loss of forest carbon risks eroding a crucial natural buffer against global heating. They point to initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a mechanism designed to mobilize private and public capital — aiming for more than $100 billion — to pay countries to keep forests intact. So far, about $6.5 billion has been pledged, far short of the target.

Heiko Balzter, a senior author and director of the Institute for Environmental Futures, said the findings underscore the urgency of scaling up funding and stronger safeguards to protect tropical forests. World leaders pledged to halt global deforestation by 2030, but progress remains too slow.

Bottom line: The reversal of Africa’s forests from carbon sink to carbon source is a global warning. Rapid, well-funded action to halt deforestation and degradation — from stronger policy safeguards to scaled-up international financing — is essential if these ecosystems are to continue mitigating climate change.

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