Zelensky’s Dilemma: Accept a Flawed Peace or Risk Prolonged War as Trump’s Envoy Heads to Moscow

US President Donald Trump has stepped back from a Thanksgiving deadline for a Ukraine settlement as his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, prepares to meet Kremlin officials in Moscow. That retreat signals the likely limits of the current initiative: a quick, binding accord to end Russia’s invasion looks increasingly unlikely.

Deadlock and high stakes

The fault lines between Kyiv and Moscow remain stark and rooted in sacrifice, fear and battlefield losses. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to accept any arrangement that does not leave Moscow effectively in control of large parts of eastern Donetsk. That demand remains the principal obstacle to any negotiated settlement and is unlikely to soften in the coming days.

What’s in the proposals — and what’s missing

According to reports, a recent US proposal sent toward Moscow removed a concession that had been present in a leaked version last week. Kyiv and many European partners view such changes as neither militarily nor politically prudent. Given the war’s long history — including previous incursions and repeated diplomatic duplicity — skepticism about Moscow’s intentions is understandable.

Much of the proposed architecture is speculative and forward-looking, addressing future alliances, financing and limits in abstract terms. As with past memorandums, these clauses could either be turned into practical measures or fade once the realities of implementation arrive. For example, a draft provision capping Ukraine’s army at 600,000 troops would become irrelevant if a durable peace took hold, while NATO membership could look less urgent in post-war conditions that require large-scale demobilization and reconstruction.

Military and domestic pressures on Kyiv

On the ground, Ukraine faces simultaneous pressures: rapid Russian moves in Zaporizhzhia, slow but steady gains around Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and forward advances near Kupiansk in the north. The remainder of Donetsk that Kyiv controls is at risk this winter; Kramatorsk, a major military hub, is already subject to short-range drone attacks.

Domestically, Kyiv is contending with political and financial strains. A corruption scandal — temporarily overshadowed by diplomacy — could resurface. Ukraine’s armed forces are stretched thin, and funding from European allies is uncertain beyond next year, despite assurances that gaps may be bridged.

Choices and risks for Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a stark, painful choice: accept security guarantees from the United States and Europe that may require territorial concessions (with deep political and military costs), or reject such a deal and continue a perilous, multi-front war. A bad treaty could damage Ukraine’s standing and security; a broken treaty would leave Kyiv with nothing.

The tacit hope among Kyiv and its supporters is that Russia’s human and economic drain might eventually force Moscow to reconsider. Such outcomes are hard to predict in a closed society, though the Wagner rebellion of 2023 showed how rapidly unlikely scenarios can unfold. Even so, Ukraine’s challenges remain immediate and acute.

Likely next steps

Trump’s envoy is expected to convey Moscow’s hardline positions back to Washington. That report may intensify pressure on Zelensky and could produce another headline-grabbing deadline. Whether that pressure leads to a sustainable end to fighting — or another temporary pause — is the central uncertainty facing Kyiv and its allies.

Bottom line: A durable ceasefire requires more than a diplomatic sprint. It needs credible security guarantees, transparent reconstruction financing, and a political pathway acceptable to Ukrainians — all of which remain deeply uncertain.