U.S. Army Secretary Warned Ukraine of Imminent Defeat While Presenting Controversial U.S. Peace Proposal

During a visit to Kyiv last week, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll delivered a stark assessment to Ukrainian officials: their forces faced a dire battlefield situation and risked imminent defeat unless Kyiv negotiated now, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Warnings on the battlefield and sustainment

Driscoll told Ukrainian counterparts that Russia was intensifying and accelerating its aerial campaign and had the capacity to fight indefinitely. He warned that, over time, Ukraine’s position could deteriorate further and urged Kyiv to consider negotiating a settlement sooner rather than later. The U.S. delegation also cautioned that American defense industries could not sustain weapons and air-defense deliveries at the tempo Ukraine would need to fully protect its infrastructure and civilians, the sources said.

The peace proposal and Kyiv’s reaction

The warnings accompanied the presentation of an initial 28-point U.S.-backed peace proposal that many Ukrainian officials viewed as overly conciliatory to Moscow. According to participants, the original draft included provisions that echoed long-standing Russian demands—such as territorial concessions, limits on Ukrainian military posture and restrictions related to NATO—and appeared to depart from some previously stated U.S. policies.

“The message was basically — you are losing, and you need to accept the deal,” one source said.

Ukraine declined to accept the plan as presented. After follow-up talks in Geneva and further negotiations, the framework was substantially revised and pared down to a 19-point document that officials described as still evolving.

Rifts inside the administration

The episode exposed a sharp split inside the administration over strategy. One faction—aligned with Vice President J.D. Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff—advocated using U.S. leverage to press Kyiv into major compromises to force an end to the conflict. Another camp, associated with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, argued that Russia must be held accountable for its invasion and that pressure and penalties are necessary to change Moscow’s calculus. Officials said those competing views frequently pull President Donald Trump in different directions.

Leak, diplomacy and revisions

The initial 28-point draft leaked after discussions in Miami between a Russian envoy and a U.S. interlocutor, according to people familiar with the diplomatic contacts. White House spokespeople later described the document as an American proposal that had taken input from multiple sides. After the leak, senior officials and European diplomats pressed for changes; some of the most contentious provisions were removed or revised during meetings in Geneva.

Following those talks, Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, said delegations had reached a common understanding on core terms and raised the prospect of a possible visit to Washington by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to finalize any deal.

Reactions from Moscow and next steps

Russian officials reacted cautiously. Russia’s foreign minister indicated the Kremlin might still reject the revised plan if it did not reflect prior understandings. Observers warned that lingering disagreement within the U.S. administration could complicate coherent policy toward the conflict.

After Kyiv, Driscoll traveled to Abu Dhabi, where he met with a Russian delegation, continuing a fast-moving diplomatic push. Multiple current and former Western officials described the plan as a living document that could change further as talks proceed.

Context and implications

The episode highlights the fragility of ongoing peace diplomacy and the difficult trade-offs facing Kyiv, Washington and European partners: how to bring hostilities to an end without rewarding aggression or leaving Ukraine vulnerable. Observers say sustained unity among Western partners and clarity in U.S. policy will be critical if negotiations are to produce a durable outcome.