Most Polls: Democrats Still Hold an Edge on Education — What the Data Shows

Recent commentary inside Democratic circles has argued that the party has lost voters' trust on education. A comprehensive review of public polling this year, however, points to a different conclusion: most surveys still show Democrats with an advantage on education as a broad issue.

What the polls show

I compiled every publicly available poll from this year that asked voters which party they trusted more on education. Across 14 surveys from eight organizations, Democrats led in 13 polls, with margins ranging from 4 to 15 points and a median advantage of 9 points. Those findings suggest that, for now, the net public view favors Democrats on education.

Context and recent history

The narrative that Republicans had seized the education issue grew after the 2021 Virginia governor race, where a late campaign focus on parents and school policy helped propel the Republican candidate. That moment coincided with tracking from the Winston Group and some commissioned polls that showed Democrats losing ground or briefly tied with Republicans on education.

But more recent trackers and national surveys conducted in 2023 and 2024 show Democrats regaining a lead in most measures, including multiwave Winston Group data and independent polls from YouGov, Ipsos and others. At the same time, targeted polls commissioned by reform groups sometimes show narrower margins or ties on specific questions such as academic emphasis or college and career readiness.

- Rahm Emanuel on changing dynamics: recent drops for Democrats were influenced in part by broader GOP gains and changing political currents.

Nuances to keep in mind

These surveys typically ask about education in a broad sense, not only K-12 classroom policy. A sizable share of respondents commonly say they are unsure or see little difference between the parties. For example, one YouGov study found Democrats ahead 39% to 32% while 29% of respondents said they were unsure or saw the parties as about the same.

Different polls can produce different results because of sampling, question wording, and timing. The lone public poll this year that did not show a Democratic edge came from Blue Rose Research; its head of research noted that methodological differences matter, and emphasized that Democrats could do more to highlight education in their messaging. Other observers, including Jorge Elorza of Democrats for Education Reform, point to narrower measures where the parties are tied or nearly tied on academic achievement and college readiness.

Elections and implications

Recent election results complicate the claim that Democrats have broadly lost the issue. Some Democratic candidates have performed well on education as a campaign issue, while other contests show Republicans winning with education-focused messages. Overall, the polling picture suggests Democrats retain an edge on education for now, but the advantage is not uniformly large and may not reflect consensus about specific policies or performance.

Polls referenced

• Blue Rose Research (February, tied)
• Fox News (July, Democrats +15)
• Ipsos (February +6, April +4, October +7)
• Napolitan News Service (August +9, October +6)
• Navigator (August +9)
• Strength in Numbers (May +11, October +15)
• YouGov (May +7)
• Winston Group (April +15, June +14, Aug/Sept +11)

In compiling these results I searched public releases and contacted multiple pollsters and advocacy organizations. Variations across polls can arise from sampling differences, question phrasing, and ordinary statistical noise. Polling advantage does not necessarily endorse the effectiveness of a party's policies, and some analyses show mixed academic outcomes across states regardless of partisan control.

Bottom line: despite persistent critiques from some activists and strategists, the bulk of publicly available polls this year indicate that Democrats generally hold a trust advantage on education. That advantage is meaningful but mixed across narrower policy questions, suggesting opportunity and risk for both parties as they shape education messaging and policy going forward.