Andy Burnham's Labour leads Reform in recent national polls, but volatile week-to-week results mean any general election would likely be tightly contested. Reform's post-election momentum has been dented by donation controversies and competition on its right, while Nigel Farage's favourability has fallen to -36. YouGov data show Labour reclaiming former voters — notably 18–24s — but pollsters caution the "Burnham bounce" may have peaked.
UK Poll Tracker: Labour Holds Lead Over Reform — One Poll Hints at a Reform Comeback
UK poll tracker: Labour holds lead over Reform – but one result hints at a comeback
With speculation growing about an early general election, Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Labour Party continues to lead Reform in national voting intention figures — but mixed polling suggests any election would be closely fought.
Poll Snapshot
Reform benefited from gains in the devolved and local elections in May, but its momentum has been complicated by controversies over donations. The party has also faced pressure on its right from Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain, and its average position in voting intention has slipped since Mr Burnham took office.
Support for Reform has been volatile week to week. One YouGov poll published on Tuesday put Reform ahead for the first time since August, after another poll the previous week placed the party third, behind the Conservatives.
Farage's Ratings and Reform's Decline
The party's overall backing has nevertheless declined, mirroring a fall in leader Nigel Farage's personal ratings. One pollster records his favourability at -36 this month, down from a peak of -27 last summer.
Andy Burnham's Labour continues to hold a lead over Reform in the polls (AFP/Getty)
Labour Regains Ground
The latest YouGov figures suggest Labour may be reclaiming voters who drifted away under the previous leadership. Support among former Labour voters who said they would back the party has risen from 49% in June to 63% in the most recent poll. Young voters appear to be shifting as well: backing among 18–24-year-olds has increased from 14% to 27% over the same period, while just 7% of that group say they would vote Reform.
Other Parties
The Conservatives have seen a modest uptick since Mr Burnham's arrival in Downing Street, averaging around 20 points since June. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have slipped in recent polling: the Lib Dems sit at roughly 11 points and the Greens have fallen from 14 points in April to about 10 this month — a setback for Green leader Zack Polanski as he contests Holborn and St Pancras later this month.
Election Timing and Outlook
Labour's improved polling has prompted calls for an early election that would, if successful, secure a multi-year mandate to pursue the government's agenda. The prime minister has been cautious about rushing to a vote, and opposition figures including Ms Badenoch and Ed Davey say they are preparing for the possibility. Pollsters warn there may be little advantage to calling an early election now: some argue the so‑called "Burnham bounce" could already have peaked.
Timing could also be difficult for Reform: Mr Farage faces the outcome of a parliamentary standards investigation following his return to Westminster.
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