Labour’s post-July polling surge has prompted talk that Prime Minister Andy Burnham might call an early general election, with the Holborn and St Pancras by-election viewed internally as a possible test. Polls show Labour ahead, while Reform UK and the Greens have slipped in approval. Local gains for the Greens and Labour’s recent loss of 38 councils complicate the picture. Polling expert Sir John Curtice warns that an early election carries significant risks and could still favour Reform in seat terms.
Could Labour Call a Snap Election? What New Polls and the Holborn By-Election Reveal
Would Labour win an early election? Here’s what the polls say
Renewed strength in the polls for the new Labour government has intensified speculation that Prime Minister Andy Burnham may be weighing up an early general election. The surge in Labour’s ratings since July — when the party overtook Reform UK in approval for the first time since March 2025 — has coincided with falling support for both Reform UK and the Green Party.
Why the Holborn And St Pancras By-Election Matters
The upcoming by-election to replace Sir Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras is being treated by some in Labour as a potential test run for a snap national poll. Sir Keir announced he would step down from parliament after resigning as prime minister and Labour leader to make way for Mr Burnham, and the Greens have confirmed that Zack Polanski will stand in the contest next month.
How Opposition Parties Are Responding
Opposition parties appear to be preparing for an early election. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey told The Guardian a manifesto working group has already been formed: "We don't normally do it this early." Sources close to Reform UK say a decisive Labour victory in the London by-election could persuade Burnham to call a general election if it signals the progressive vote is consolidating behind Labour.
What The Polls Say
Recent polling shows:
A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election (PA Wire)
- Labour has enjoyed a sustained boost in approval since Mr Burnham took the helm in July.
- Reform UK’s approval is at its lowest level in about 20 months, averaging roughly 24 points.
- Green support has fallen to around 10 points, down from about 14% in April.
- The Conservatives are plateauing at roughly 20 points, while the Liberal Democrats sit near 11.
Pollsters generally expect Labour to hold Holborn and St Pancras — Labour took nearly 50% of the vote there in 2024 — but local dynamics have changed. At this year's local elections the Greens made notable gains in London, taking three councils from Labour and increasing their Camden seats from one to 11, even as Labour retained overall control.
Pros And Cons For Labour
Calling an early general election could deliver clear upsides for Mr Burnham. A nationwide victory would give him a stronger democratic mandate — critics point out he won Makerfield with around 24,000 votes and was unopposed in the Labour leadership contest — and could extend his parliamentary time to implement pledges. Under current rules, the next general election must be held no later than 2029.
But risks remain. Senior pollster Sir John Curtice has warned against overconfidence, noting Labour’s poor local election results — where the party lost 38 councils — and arguing that those patterns mean Reform could still do well in terms of seats in a nationwide contest.
"The numbers are just not there... Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It's a bad deal," Sir John Curtice told The Independent.
For now, the by-election in Holborn and St Pancras is being watched as an early indicator of whether Labour’s polling gains are sustainable and whether the progressive vote is truly consolidating. The outcome could sharpen calculations across the political spectrum about the timing of a possible general election.
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