Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Labour Party holds a lead over Reform in current UK polls, with Opinium putting Labour at 30% and Reform at 25%. Labour's gains follow Burnham's conference speech pledging closer ties with Europe and renewed focus on industries affected by Brexit. Young voters and former Labour supporters have swung back to Labour, while Reform and Nigel Farage have seen falling support amid donation controversies and right‑wing competition.
UK Poll Tracker: Labour Holds Lead Over Reform As Burnham Sees Post-Conference Boost
UK poll tracker: Labour holds lead over Reform as Burnham sees Brexit boost
With speculation about an early general election swirling, Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Labour Party continues to lead Reform in national opinion polls, reaching its highest approval levels since the party's decisive 2024 victory.
Polls And Momentum
Recent nationwide polling shows Labour extending a modest but consistent advantage. An Opinium survey puts Labour on 30% and Reform on 25%, while averages across major pollsters still favour the government. However, week-to-week figures — particularly from YouGov — underline how volatile support remains, with Reform briefly polling ahead one week before slipping again.
What Drove The 'Burnham Bounce'
The prime minister's uptick followed his opening address at the Labour conference, where he pledged closer cooperation with European partners and lamented industries he said were 'harmed by Brexit'. That speech appears to have helped Labour reclaim some voters lost during the previous leadership: former Labour supporters backing the party have risen from 49% in June to 63% in the latest polling.
Andy Burnham's Labour continues to hold a lead over Reform in the polls (AFP/Getty)
Demographic Shifts
Young voters have swung markedly toward Labour under Burnham. Support among 18–24-year-olds rose from 14% to 27% over the measured period, while Reform attracts only about 7% in that age group. These gains have helped offset modest recoveries for the Conservatives, who average around 20% since June.
Reform, Farage And Controversies
Reform's progress has been hampered by donation-related controversies and competition on the right from Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain. Nigel Farage's personal favourability has declined sharply — one pollster records it at -36 this month, down from a peak of -27 last summer. Reform's polling also shows pronounced week-to-week swings, highlighting its fragile position.
Smaller Parties
The Liberal Democrats and Greens appear to be squeezed by Labour's rise: recent polling places the Lib Dems at roughly 11%, down several points, while Green support has fallen from about 14% in April to near 10%. Green leader Zack Polanski faces a high-profile challenge later this month when he contests the Holborn and St Pancras seat vacated by Sir Keir Starmer.
Early Election Debate
Labour's improved standing has prompted renewed calls for an early election that could give Burnham a fresh five-year mandate. The prime minister has indicated he is prepared to press his agenda, saying he wants to 'knock dead' opposing ideas. Yet pollsters warn the so-called 'Burnham bounce' may have already peaked, and several analysts advise caution, arguing little electoral advantage may remain in calling an early contest now.
Timing could also complicate matters for Reform: Nigel Farage faces the outcome of a parliamentary standards investigation after returning to Westminster.
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