Recent YouGov polling gives Labour a boost under Andy Burnham but still projects the party on 241 seats — short of a majority and likely resulting in a hung parliament. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election is being treated as a key test for Labour's national prospects, while support for Reform UK and the Greens has fallen. Polling experts warn a snap election would be a high-risk gamble for Burnham despite short-term momentum.
Would Labour Risk a Snap Election? What New Polls Reveal About Burnham's Chances
Would Labour win an early election? Here’s what the polls say
Rising poll numbers for Andy Burnham's new government have intensified speculation that Labour may call an early general election, while support for Reform UK continues to fall.
Latest Polling Snapshot
A fresh YouGov projection places Reform UK third in a hypothetical general election, with 123 seats, behind the Conservatives on 130. Labour is projected to win 241 seats — a drop of 162 from its current total — which would produce a hung parliament and likely force Labour to seek support from the Greens and Liberal Democrats to form a government.
Green leader Zack Polanski will stand for his party in the Holborn and St Pancras contest (PA Wire)
Why the By-Election Matters
The Holborn and St Pancras by-election, called to replace Sir Keir Starmer after his resignation as prime minister and Labour leader, is being treated inside Labour as a potential dress rehearsal for a snap general election. Pollsters expect Labour to hold the seat — where it won nearly 50% of the vote in 2024 — but recent local gains by the Greens in London have tightened the picture.
Shifting Party Fortunes
Andy Burnham's elevation in July coincided with Labour overtaking Reform in approval ratings for the first time since March 2025. Reform's approval is now at an average of 23 points — its lowest in 20 months — while Green support has slipped from about 14% in April to roughly 10%. The Conservatives have plateaued around 20%, and the Liberal Democrats around 11%.
A sustained polling boost for the new government is fuelling speculation that Andy Burnham is considering an early general election (PA Wire)
The Greens strengthened their position in Camden at recent local elections, increasing their representation in the borough — which contains Holborn and St Pancras — from one seat to 11, even as Labour retained overall control.
Political Stakes for Burnham
There are clear upsides for Mr Burnham in calling an early election, especially if Labour holds Holborn and St Pancras convincingly. His supporters argue a decisive general election victory would give him a national mandate and more time — potentially two extra years — to implement his agenda. Critics note he became prime minister after winning 24,000 votes in Makerfield and facing no contest for the Labour leadership, arguing he lacks a broad electoral mandate.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice: "The numbers are just not there. Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two." He warns that Labour's poor local results — losing 38 councils — have reduced its strength in areas where it was previously dominant, leaving room for Reform to perform well in seats.
Official Position and Opposition Preparations
The government says it does not intend to call an early election, but opposition parties appear to be preparing. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has formed a manifesto working group, and Reform sources say a convincing Labour win in the London by-election could encourage calls for a snap poll by portraying the progressive vote as coalescing around Labour.
Bottom line: Polling gives Labour momentum under Mr Burnham, but the projected seat totals suggest a snap election would be a strategic gamble with a realistic risk of a hung parliament and unpredictable seat outcomes.
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