Lithuania's military intelligence warns that Russia may be planning strikes on Baltic critical infrastructure and could attempt to mask attacks by using seized Ukrainian drones. Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas described a possible 'false-flag' scenario using fake Ukrainian drones as the most realistic option under review. Officials say no specific operation has been confirmed and there is no immediate threat, but Lithuania and NATO have increased monitoring and protections at key transport and energy sites.
Lithuania Warns Russia Could Stage False-Flag Drone Attacks Using Seized Ukrainian Drones
FILE PHOTO: Gitanas Nausėda, president of Lithuania, speaks to the press ahead of the NATO Summit and the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Ankara. (is associated with: «Lithuania says Russia might launch false flag op with Ukrainian drones») Michael Kappeler/dpa
Lithuania's military intelligence has warned that Russia may be considering strikes on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states and could attempt to conceal responsibility by using seized Ukrainian drones, the Lithuanian government said on Thursday.
Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas, speaking in Vilnius and confirming a report by the news site 15min, said officials have 'information that Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltics' and that 'it is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian drones for this purpose.'
'We are talking here about a possible "false flag" operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone is used. This is probably the most realistic scenario currently being examined,' Kaunas told journalists.
Kaunas added that authorities have not disclosed specific targets or a timetable and that Moscow has not made a concrete decision to carry out any particular operation. Lithuanian officials stressed there is no confirmed immediate threat, but NATO partners are monitoring the situation closely.
Context and Response
Lithuania has stepped up security at key transport and energy facilities after President Gitanas Nausėda warned of potential sabotage and hybrid attacks. The country shares borders with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and with Belarus, a close Russian ally, which increases its regional exposure.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces — with Western support — have struck targets in north-western Russia. Some drones used in those operations have veered into Baltic airspace or crashed inside Baltic countries, prompting Moscow to accuse Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace. Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius have rejected those claims as disinformation.
What Officials Are Doing
Lithuanian and NATO authorities say they are monitoring intelligence and have warned Moscow about suspected intentions. Officials emphasize preparedness and protective measures around critical infrastructure while describing the 'false flag' drone tactic as an intelligence-based scenario under examination rather than a confirmed plan.
What To Watch: official updates from Lithuania's defence ministry, statements from NATO, and any verifiable evidence of drone activity or claims of responsibility.
Help us improve.
