The Climate Change Commission warns recent government choices risk derailing New Zealand’s emissions targets, noting that planned policy changes could outweigh measures intended to cut emissions. The Commission says amendments reducing biogenic methane requirements by 2050 and exemptions for agriculture from emissions pricing are particularly concerning. It also flagged the planned merger of the Ministry for the Environment and a proposed LNG import facility as added risks. The next 12–24 months are critical, the report says.
Report Warns New Zealand Risks Missing Emissions Targets After Policy Reversals
The report by the independent Climate Change Commission -- released earlier this month but only widely publicised on Wednesday -- said Wellington's right-wing government had ignored emissions advice in 2025 (Sanka VIDANAGAMA)
An independent report from the Climate Change Commission warns that recent government decisions could prevent New Zealand from meeting its legally mandated emissions-reduction targets.
Key Findings
The Commission, whose assessment was published earlier this month and widely publicised this week, says Wellington’s right-leaning government ignored its 2025 recommendations to strengthen emissions targets. The Commission had urged tougher cuts to biogenic methane and called for net negative emissions for all other greenhouse gases — removing more emissions than are produced.
Instead, the Government amended the Climate Change Response Act in a way that reduces required biogenic methane reductions by 2050 while leaving the 2050 net-zero requirement for other greenhouse gases unchanged. The Commission says the window to change course is short and urgent action is needed.
Policies That Could Push Emissions Higher
- Excluding agriculture from emissions pricing, which may reduce incentives to cut methane emissions from livestock.
- Loosening clean vehicle rules, potentially slowing the uptake of low-emission transport.
- Reducing business reporting requirements, which could weaken transparency and slow emissions-reduction efforts.
- Plans to construct a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility, which would increase fossil-fuel reliance.
“Emissions are gradually falling but progress stalled in 2024, and current policy settings are not delivering at the pace needed,” said Jo Hendy, Chief Executive of the Climate Change Commission. “Government choices in the next 12–24 months will be critical to getting the country back on track.”
Other Risks and Context
The report acknowledges several government measures introduced over the past year that are intended to lower emissions, but concludes those are likely to be outweighed by actions that could increase emissions overall. It also flagged the decision to close the standalone Ministry for the Environment — merging it into a new department for cities, environment, regions and transport — as an additional governance risk.
The Government’s approach has been challenged in court by Lawyers for Climate Action and the Environmental Law Initiative, which argue current policies fall short of statutory obligations. The outcome of that case is expected in the coming months.
Bottom line: The Commission warns that without stronger policy decisions soon, New Zealand may fail to meet its 2050 commitments — and the next 12–24 months are decisive.
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