Greens Surge and Reform Threaten Labour Hold In Gorton & Denton By-Election

Support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party is slipping in a long-standing Manchester stronghold as the Green Party and right-wing Reform UK mount serious challenges in the Gorton and Denton by-election later this week.

The merged constituency, covering towns in east Manchester, will elect a new member of parliament on Thursday after Labour MP Andrew Gwynne announced his resignation. Historically separate, Gorton has returned Labour MPs for almost a century and Denton has been Labour since World War Two.

Stakes And Local Dynamics

Labour comfortably won the seat in July 2024 with just over 50% of the vote, but local campaigning and national controversies have opened a three-way contest. Polling by Omnisis showed the Greens narrowly ahead of Reform, with Labour close behind — a picture that has been reflected in bookmakers' odds.

Two Directions Of Decline

Locally, Labour appears to be losing ground in two different directions: younger, diverse voters in the constituency's inner western suburbs are drifting to the Greens, while older, white working-class communities in eastern Denton are gravitating to Reform. The seat includes some of Manchester's most deprived neighbourhoods.

'I've always been a staunch Labour voter. But now I'm giving Reform a chance. Labour have let us down,' said retired firefighter Dave Ward, reflecting the frustration among some Denton residents.

Discontent has been fuelled by perceived policy U-turns, falling approval for Labour, and renewed anger over allegations that Peter Mandelson, Starmer's chosen U.S. ambassador, previously leaked government information to the late Jeffrey Epstein — allegations Mandelson denies. Labour's decision to block Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the by-election has also sparked criticism and prompted some voters to consider alternatives.

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage and party candidate Matt Goodwin attend the opening of the party's campaign headquarters ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election, triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, in Denton, Britain, February 5, 2026. REUTERS/Phil Noble

Campaigns On The Ground

The Greens, under new national leadership, have been active in inner-city wards such as Levenshulme, where posters are prominent and candidate Hannah Spencer has drawn enthusiastic local support. Spencer, a 34-year-old councillor, says her campaign appeals to voters seeking change: 'I think people now are just ready for change.'

Reform UK, once led by Nigel Farage, has concentrated its campaign in Denton and says it has strong backing in large parts of the seat. Candidate Matt Goodwin emphasises his message on immigration and economic fairness, insisting the contest 'has nothing to do with race, ethnicity and religion' and appealing to 'the hard-working majority.'

Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia warns voters the choice is between Labour and Reform, arguing the Greens lack the track record to stop a right-wing surge. Political analysts caution that a Labour defeat would be a significant blow to Starmer and could reignite leadership tensions ahead of local elections.

Wider Implications

Investors are watching closely: volatility in UK government bonds this year has been linked to uncertainty about Labour's political future and the risk that leadership change could shift policy direction. Local results in Gorton and Denton are therefore being read as a potential bellwether for national politics.

Key candidates: Angeliki Stogia (Labour), Hannah Spencer (Green), Matt Goodwin (Reform).