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Myanmar Vote Ends: Pro‑Military Ally Poised For Landslide In Junta‑Run Poll

Myanmar Vote Ends: Pro‑Military Ally Poised For Landslide In Junta‑Run Poll
Myanmar's junta punishes protest or criticism with up to a decade in prison (ANTHONY WALLACE)(ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP/AFP)

Myanmar completed the final phase of a month‑long election that early returns suggest will deliver a large victory to the pro‑military USDP. The vote—held amid civil war and ahead of the coup's fifth anniversary—saw polling cancelled in rebel areas and reports of coercion in junta‑run zones. With the NLD dissolved, Aung San Suu Kyi detained and the military guaranteed 25% of parliamentary seats, critics say the poll will entrench junta control.

Voting concluded on Sunday in the final phase of Myanmar's month-long national election, with early returns pointing to a sweeping win for the pro‑military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in a ballot critics say will reinforce army control.

The vote comes amid an ongoing civil war and just days before the fifth anniversary of the 2021 coup that toppled the civilian government and detained Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD, Suu Kyi's party that won overwhelmingly in 2020, has been dissolved and many of its leaders remain detained or in hiding.

Election Context And Conduct

Polling did not take place in rebel‑held areas, and rights monitors report that in many junta‑controlled districts the run‑up to voting was marked by coercion, restrictions on campaigning and the suppression of dissent. Official turnout in the first two phases was just over 50 percent, down from roughly 70 percent in 2020.

"This is the path chosen by the people," junta chief Min Aung Hlaing said during a visit to polling stations in Mandalay, adding that voters "can support whoever they want."

Results, Power Structure And Reaction

In the first two phases the USDP — a party dominated by retired military officers and widely described by analysts as aligned with the junta — secured more than 85% of elected lower‑house seats and about two‑thirds of elected upper‑house seats. Official final results are expected later this week.

"States that endorse the results of these polls will be complicit in the junta's attempt to legitimise military rule through a fabricated vote," said UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews.

Under Myanmar's military‑drafted constitution the armed forces are also guaranteed 25% of seats in both houses of parliament; the combined assembly will select the president, giving the military a decisive institutional role regardless of the vote outcome.

Security, Casualties And Legal Crackdown

The coup tipped Myanmar into widespread armed conflict: pro‑democracy militias and ethnic armed organisations are fighting the junta, with ACLED estimating more than 90,000 people killed across all sides. One in five lower‑house constituencies saw polling suspended because of insecurity, while some frontline districts voted under heavy restrictions.

Authorities have pursued more than 400 people under new laws that criminalise so‑called "disruption" of the election, exposing critics and protesters to penalties of up to a decade in prison. Many candidates and voters said campaigning and travel remained unsafe.

What Comes Next: Even if the USDP secures a broad share of elected seats, the military's guaranteed parliamentary block and the dissolution of the NLD mean Myanmar's political landscape is likely to remain under strong army influence. International recognition of the poll results will be closely watched.

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