President Trump’s 2024 strategy of leveraging concerns about the economy, immigration and crime helped Republicans regain power, but recent local defeats and falling approval on those issues suggest 2026 will be more challenging. Polling shows declines in Trump’s approval on the economy (31%), crime (43%) and immigration (38%). Republican leaders worry that messaging failures and a Senate vote blocking an extension of health-care subsidies, which could raise costs in January, will make affordability a dominant issue next year. Trump and his team plan aggressive campaigning, but internal divisions and voter priorities complicate the path forward.
Trump Delivered 2024 Wins — But GOP Faces Rising Risks Ahead Of 2026
President Donald Trump speaks during a signing ceremony in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
President Donald Trump harnessed voter anxiety about the economy, immigration and crime to reclaim the White House in 2024 and helped deliver a wave of Republican victories. But recent local defeats, slipping approval ratings on core issues and intra-party divisions suggest that the same strategy may be harder to replicate in 2026.
GOP Loses Some Momentum Locally
In recent weeks the Republican Party has suffered a string of setbacks. A Democrat won Miami’s mayoralty for the first time in about three decades, and Democrats also prevailed in a special election in a historically Republican Georgia district. Those results have raised alarm among GOP strategists who worry the party’s advantage may be eroding in competitive areas.
Eroding Approval On The Issues That Mattered
Polling shows declines in Trump’s standing on the very issues that powered his 2024 comeback. An Associated Press–NORC poll finds approval of Trump’s handling of the economy at just 31% (down from 40% in March). Approval for his handling of crime has fallen to 43% from 53%, and approval on immigration has slipped to 38% from 49% over the same period. Trump dismissed the downturn in public opinion, telling Politico he would give himself an "A+++++" on the economy.
Internal Strains And Messaging Challenges
There are signs Trump’s influence has limits. Indiana state senators rejected a congressional map that could have helped Republicans pick up two seats, and pressure from insurgent Republicans forced Trump to accede to a vote calling for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Congress also passed several measures this week that push back against priorities at the Defense Department.
People arrive before President Donald Trump speaks at Mount Airy Casino Resort, Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025, in Mount Pocono, Pa. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
"If you’re not concerned, then you’re living in a cave," Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., said, summarizing the unease among some GOP officials about messaging and electability.
Affordability Emerges As A Central Voter Concern
Many Republican candidates remain aligned with Trump — some even welcoming his involvement on the campaign trail — but local candidates and voters increasingly cite affordability as their top priority. Washington state Sen. John Braun, running in a competitive district, said voters repeatedly raise concerns about everyday costs and economic security.
Compounding the problem, Senate Republicans rejected an extension of health-care subsidies, a move that effectively guarantees higher costs for millions in January unless a late fix is found. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., warned that this moment may be more perilous for Republicans than the period before the 2018 midterms because voters stand to lose benefits without action.
What Comes Next
With nearly a year until the midterms, outcomes remain uncertain. Historically the president’s party loses ground in the first midterm after a presidential victory, but redistricting and voting patterns have reduced the number of truly competitive districts — potentially muting broad swings. Trump and his team say he will campaign aggressively next year; whether that strategy overcomes growing voter concerns about affordability, messaging, and intra-party fractures will shape the GOP’s prospects in 2026.
Associated Press writers Kevin Freking and others contributed to this report.
