President Trump repeatedly called the U.S. the "hottest country anywhere in the world" during his second term's first year. Stock markets recovered after a post-inauguration slump, but several foreign indexes — including Japan’s Nikkei 225 — outpaced U.S. averages, and market gains in 2025 were modest relative to other presidential Year Ones. The U.S. lagged on GDP growth and job gains, while NOAA data show North America recorded its second-warmest autumn and warmest November, meaning the country was literally very warm even if it wasn’t the world’s economic leader.
Not So 'Hot': Trump’s Claim That the U.S. Is the 'Hottest Country' Doesn’t Hold Up
America isn’t the ‘hottest country’ even by one of Trump’s favorite metrics
President Donald Trump repeatedly asserted that the United States is the "hottest country anywhere in the world" during the first year of his second term, making the claim in speeches on Dec. 11, Dec. 17 and again at an event in North Carolina on Dec. 19.
Source: Stooq
What Did He Mean By "Hot"?
The phrase is rhetorical unless tied to a specific metric. Trump frequently points to stock-market performance as evidence of economic strength, and during the Dec. 11 remarks he highlighted the markets — apparently referring to what he said was the 52nd new high of the year for a major index.
Source: Stooq
Markets Tell Part Of The Story — But Not The Whole
After a post-inauguration dip that coincided with announcements of sweeping tariffs in the spring, the three major U.S. indexes — the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 — recovered and were roughly 10% to 20% higher by Christmas. That rebound helps explain the White House emphasis on equity markets.
Source: Stooq
However, several foreign stock indexes, particularly in Asia, outperformed the major U.S. averages over the same period. Some markets that fell after the tariff announcements, such as Japan’s Nikkei 225, recovered more strongly than U.S. benchmarks. Measured against recent presidential first years, 2025’s market growth was modest: since 2001, four presidential Year Ones posted stronger market gains than 2025, including Trump’s own 2017 Year One. By Christmas, U.S. markets had also seen larger gains in Joe Biden’s first year than in Trump’s year under review.
Source: Stooq
Broader Economic Indicators
Looking beyond stocks, other common measures undercut the "hottest country" claim. India’s third-quarter GDP growth, for example, was nearly twice the U.S. pace. U.S. job growth has been largely flat since April, which weakens any blanket assertion of U.S. economic leadership based on employment.
Source: Stooq
One Area Where The U.S. Was Literally Hot
On actual temperature records, the United States — and North America more broadly — was unusually warm. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data show North America experienced its second-warmest autumn on record and its warmest November. Those climate records are the clearest sense in which the U.S. has been "hot" this year.
Context: At a Dec. 19 event in North Carolina, Trump framed his energy policies as a victory over climate-focused critics, saying he "ended the radical left’s war on American energy" and claiming to have "terminated the Green New Scam and signed an order to drill, baby, drill."
Bottom line: If "hot" means top economic performance across common benchmarks — stock returns, GDP growth and job gains — the data do not support the claim that the United States is the "hottest country anywhere in the world." If "hot" refers to actual temperatures, NOAA records show it has indeed been unusually warm.
